Donald Trump's Apocalyptic Threats Fall Flat with Iran

President Donald Trump's warning to hit Iran with the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country marks the latest grandiose White House threat designed to punish the Islamic Republic into capitulation.

Key points

• By Tom O'Connor Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy.
• More lately, Trump stated Tuesday that negotiations were no longer taking place, even if his son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner had earlier indicated otherwise.
• Rightly or wrongly, Tehran believes it has won the war and can use its control of Hormuz to extract concessions from Washington, Milani remarked.
• "A growing consensus in Tehran expects another war and judges Washington by its actions, not its assurances or words." A Time for 'Patience and Determination'.
• "They have been on a war footing for almost 50 years, and the government faces no election, " Alterman informed Newsweek.

By Tom O'Connor Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy. Newsweek is a Trust Project member.

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Last month, the U.S. Leader remarked he had planned to hit Iran with "the biggest attack since World War II"-a conflict that notably concluded with the first and only-ever uses of the atomic bomb. As the U.S.-Israeli war introduced on Iran just weeks earlier first began to settle into a stalemate, Trump had cautioned, "a whole civilization will die tonight.", before that, in April.

As with much of Trump's more hyperbolic messaging, neither of those threats were carried out. Instead, they were called off to create way for diplomatic maneuvers.

More lately, Trump stated Tuesday that negotiations were no longer taking place, even if his son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner had earlier indicated otherwise. Newsweek additionally learned from a source with knowledge that discussions described as positive have taken place, but Trump decided to wait and asked his team to not engage until Iran is ready to produce a accord.

But discussions or no negotiations, Trump's intimidation tactics simply do not seem to hold much weight today in Tehran, where calls for escalation rather than compromise are gaining traction.

"By now, the Iranian leadership does not take such threats literally and is largely dismissive of them, " Mehran Kamrava, a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and expert on Iranian politics, informed Newsweek.

"The danger, however, is that many in Iran, especially within leadership circles, see the current situation of 'neither peace, nor war' as untenable in the long run and see military escalation as the only way out of the current stalemate, " Kamrava remarked. "The more that President Trump pulls away from negotiations and promises the death of the Islamic Republic by a thousand sanctions, the stronger voices inside the Iranian leadership calling for military escalation become."

As bombastic threats and abrupt shifts in positions come to define Trump's rhetoric in the six-month war with Iran, some analysts have likened his approach to the so-called "madman theory" often associated with former President Richard Nixon.

In practice, the idea is that the targets of the president's tough talk-not just Iran, but additionally China, Russia and even European allies-may be more willing to submit if they remain uncertain over what he's truly capable of. Moreover, Trump's intervention in Venezuela, strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in June of last year and the earlier 2020 killing of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani have demonstrated Trump has the capacity to prove his "TACO" ("Trump Always Chickens Out") detractors wrong.

Tehran once again discovered this out the hard way when the U.S. And Israel rolled out their joint war in February, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the conflict.

Almost six months afterwards, nevertheless, Iran has proved it too can produce good on its promises. Iranian authorities had long asserted they could squeeze the global economy through dominance over the Strait of Hormuz and inflict pain on regional countries hosting U.S. Military bases in the event of a conflict, and they have executed both aims with even greater success than most had predicted.

And as Iran now rebuilds military capabilities and stockpiles at a pace that has additionally reportedly surprised U.S. And Israeli office-holders, Iranian leadership has only doubled down on its vows to raise the costs of the conflict with support from Axis of Resistance allies such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and Yemen's Ansar Allah, additionally known as the Houthi movement.

Some Iranian authorities and analysts have described a desired shift on Tehran's part from an "eye for an eye" strategy to one of an "eye for a head."

As Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed Trump's "economic D-day" threat as "a diversion from America's own crisis: unprecedented debt & surging interest costs, " Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson Brigadier General Hossein Mohebi cautioned Thursday that "if another war begins, our weaponry will certainly be different from those of the past, " with greater range, power and precision.

Whether or not it's true, Iran appears to banking on the same psychological deterrent as its adversary.

"Both sides benefit from ambiguity: it keeps the other guessing, contains domestic opposition, and shields diplomacy from regional spoilers, " Mohsen Milani, executive director of the University of South Florida's Center for Strategic & Diplomatic Studies, informed Newsweek. "Trump may be using unpredictability as leverage while Kushner keeps backchannels open. But the mixed messages additionally reveal the central weakness in U.S. Strategy: Washington has not translated military superiority into political victory. ".

Rightly or wrongly, Tehran believes it has won the war and can use its control of Hormuz to extract concessions from Washington, Milani remarked. Extra strikes could devastate Iran but are unlikely to force its surrender or produce major concessions. Tehran can still retaliate against U.S. Forces and allies, widen the battlefield, and continue weaponizing Hormuz.

For context, the result, he argued, is that Washington "remains caught between escalating pressure and preserving diplomacy because military power alone is unlikely to end the conflict." Meanwhile, "from Tehran's perspective, American unpredictability has become unreliability."

"Unpredictability creates leverage; unreliability destroys credibility, " Milani remarked. "A growing consensus in Tehran expects another war and judges Washington by its actions, not its assurances or words." A Time for 'Patience and Determination'.

There are signs that Trump's most recent warning is more than just talk.

Shortly before he issued the threat, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), one of Iran's top trading partners, had confirmed Wednesday that "all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran have been halted until further notice" in response to what Emirati office-holders noted were the launches of two ballistic missiles against its territory.

Meanwhile, the UAE has been the nation most frequently targeted by Iran throughout the war, with Iranian authorities frequently accusing the nation of supporting U.S. Operations and cultivating closer ties with Israel. But Tehran's response to the latest measure was to deny responsibility for the attack, instead blaming a "false flag operation" by Israel and the U.S.

Even if Trump does press forward with his doomsday scenario by imposing "tremendous economic consequences" against any country caught engaging in trade with Iran, nevertheless, it may not be enough to shake the Islamic Republic into surrender.

"Both sides believe they can outlast the other economically, " Milani remarked. "Trump's new 'no negotiations' posture seeks to suffocate Iran until Tehran concludes that time is no longer on its side. Yet years of U.S. Sanctions have devastated Iran's economy without producing commensurate strategic gains for Washington."

Jon Alterman, a former U.S. State Department official now serving as the Center for Strategic and International Studies' chair in global security and geostrategy, remarked "it seems like the Iranians judge that this situation is more sustainable for them than either for the United States or their regional neighbors."

"They have been on a war footing for almost 50 years, and the government faces no election, " Alterman informed Newsweek. "If anything, their resilience in the face of attack from both the world's strongest power and the region's strongest power has given them credibility with their population."

"In addition, the unprecedented killing of their entire leadership cadre must have persuaded them that this is the inflexion point in their modern history, and they need to hang tough, " Alterman remarked.

And pressure is additionally mounting on the White House. It faces dwindling munitions stockpiles and domestic backing for the war ahead of midterm elections, as well as on regional partners who are largely appealing for peace against the backdrop of a growing toll of economic disruption and deepening uncertainties over U.S. Security commitments.

Far from eyeing defeat, Iranian authorities still view fundamental advantages in their effort to not only survive the conflict but impose key goals of their own.

"They see regional states suffocating from the economic dislocation, and the White House nervous about the impending election with high energy prices and a depleted U.S. Military, " Alterman remarked. "They see the president's threats not as a sign of resolve, but as a sign of anxiety. To their satisfaction, they additionally see the world swinging away from reliance on the United States and its leadership."

"They see this as a time that calls for patience and determination as they try to ensure Iran is never again attacked, sanctions crumble, and they lock in an income stream from Hormuz traffic that helps them rebuild their economy, " he continued. "Sure, they'll talk, but I think it's much more likely to lead to an open-ended negotiation that leads to some small successes than an agreement that resolves issues in a durable way."

For now, donald Trump& #039; s Apocalyptic Threats Fall Flat with Iran remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.