El Nino could cause 451,000 extra heat deaths, estimates say

El Nino could cause 451, 000 extra heat deaths, estimates say.

Key points

• An extra 19, 300 are projected in Indonesia and 19, 400 in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia.
• The toll could reach 15, 800 in India and 13, 300 in Brazil.
• They then combined those findings with long-range temperature forecasts to estimate excess deaths that could result from El Nino compared with the 1996-2025 average.
• The Sahel region in Africa could have an extra 66, 800 heat deaths compared to a normal year, with almost half of that number in Nigeria alone.
• For the projections, the Climate Impact Lab applied research on the relationship between temperature and excess mortality in 24, 378 regions, taking local climate and vulnerability into account.

El Nino could cause 451, 000 extra heat deaths, estimates say. AFP Published September 23, 2026 Updated September 23, 2026 08: 00pm. Join our Whatsapp Channel. Add Dawn as a trusted source.

This year's powerful El Nino weather pattern could lead to 451, 000 extra heat-related deaths worldwide through February as it turbocharges global temperatures, according to projections published on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the warming phenomenon, which was declared in June and is due to peak afterwards this year, is on course to be the strongest on record, amplifying the effects of human-induced climate change.

Meanwhile, the estimates by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago discovered that developing countries would be hit hardest by the heat-related toll in the June to February period.

Meanwhile, the Sahel region in Africa could have an extra 66, 800 heat deaths compared to a normal year, with almost half of that number in Nigeria alone.

Notably, an extra 19, 300 are projected in Indonesia and 19, 400 in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia.

Notably, the toll could reach 15, 800 in India and 13, 300 in Brazil.

For context, the researchers projected that global land temperatures will be 1.2C above normal in the coming months due in sizeable part to El Nino, leading to 44 per cent more extremely hot days than in a regular year.

They then combined those findings with long-range temperature forecasts to estimate excess deaths that could result from El Nino compared with the 1996-2025 average. Their method will be published in an upcoming peer-reviewed journal.

Notably, the report comes a day after the United Nations cautioned that El Nino represents a significant threat to global health.

In practice, the Climate Impact Lab researchers remarked their projections can assist governments and humanitarian organisations take preventive measures to protect individuals, including heat warnings, cooling centres and hydration stations.

"This report allows decision-makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months, " remarked Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone. Join DawnMedia's Breathe Pakistan initiative to combat climate change.

For now, el Nino could cause 451, 000 extra heat deaths, estimates say remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.