El Nino set to be most intense ‘for over a century’: UK forecasters

By Al Jazeera Staff and AFP.

Key points

• Wildfires have burned through more than 200, 000 hectares (494, 200 acres) in Indonesia and rampaged throughout southwestern Europe, forcing the displacement of at least 325, 000 residents in Spain and France.
• Typically, El Nino leads sea surface temperatures to rise between 1-2 degrees Celsius (1.8-3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).
• Particularly solid effects are anticipated throughout the Tropics, Scaife noted, "where we expect really severe droughts in places like South America, and the West Pacific".
• Combined with the effects of human-induced climate change, the Met Office cautioned that the event is "very likely" to produce 2027 the hottest year on record globally.
• As autumn and winter arrive in the Northern Hemisphere, the Met Office remarked El Nino will spawn wetter, stormier conditions in northwestern Europe, including the UK.

For context, the impact of this year's El Nino event is projected to be the most intense in more than a century, United Kingdom forecasters have cautioned.

Notably, the effect of the event will drive the risk of drought, high temperatures, intense rainfall and other extreme weather effects, the Met Office remarked in an official note issued on Friday.

Typically, El Nino leads sea surface temperatures to rise between 1-2 degrees Celsius (1.8-3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). Nevertheless, forecasts for the 2026 version predict record values of more than 3C (5.4F) in the coming months, the forecasters stated.

"We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event, " remarked Adam Scaife, head of the office's long-range forecasting. "I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts."

If the spike plays out as anticipated, "then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences", he continued.

Meanwhile, the chief forecaster separately informed the BBC that the three-degree rise was "unheard-of in modern climate records".

El Nino is triggered by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, influencing global weather patterns.

Governments worldwide are already grappling with historic climate events so far this year.

Wildfires have burned through more than 200, 000 hectares (494, 200 acres) in Indonesia and rampaged throughout southwestern Europe, forcing the displacement of at least 325, 000 residents in Spain and France. Other countries are dealing with severe droughts.

In mid-August, the UK recorded its hottest day of the year as the temperature in west London climbed to 38.1C (100.5F), beating the previous high of 38C (100.4F) in June.

Taken together, the developments around el Nino set to be most intense 'for over a century': UK point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.