Explained: Why food prices may rise and stay elevated

Why food rates may rise and stay elevated A strengthening El Niño and escalating geopolitical tensions in both West Asia and Russia-Ukraine could drive up food inflation.

Key points

• 6 min read New Delhi Updated: Sep 14, 2026 05: 51 AM IST.
• June, the opening month of the season, witnesses an average of three low-pressure systems (LPS) that cover a 24-hour period of regarding 11 days.
• A vendor at a waterlogged road near Kalighat temple in Kolkata, Sunday, Sept.
• July, by contrast, saw four LPSs, close to the climatological average for the month.

In practice, a vendor at a waterlogged road near Kalighat temple in Kolkata, Sunday, Sept. 13. (PTI Photo). This year's southwest monsoon has been rather erratic.

June, the opening month of the season, witnesses an average of three low-pressure systems (LPS) that cover a 24-hour period of regarding 11 days. This time, not a single LPS – which brings rain as warm, moist air near the ground rises into the atmosphere, where it cools and condenses into clouds – was formed. Rainfall over India as a whole was, then, 38% below the normal long-period average (LPA) for the month.

July, by contrast, saw four LPSs, close to the climatological average for the month. Since each of these systems persisted for relatively longer durations, the total LPS days, at 24, were higher than the average of 13.56 days for the month. These led to good rainfall. It was 1% above the overall LPA for the country in July.

In short, explained: Why food prices may rise and stay elevated is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.