German elections under way which could decide fate of Chancellor Merz

ByJessica Parker Berlin correspondent.

Key points

• Opinion polls in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommerm suggest Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is at risk of damaging defeats.
• According to the polls, Merz's conservatives could lose power in Berlin as it tussles with Die Linke (The Left) over first place.
• Local elections are taking place in two German states on Sunday which could growth the political pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
• The AfD is hoping to build on its recent landslide win in Saxony-Anhalt by topping the polls in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
• Martin Rohloff, the CDU candidate for Neubrandenburg, thinks Merz does not have the "Fingerspitzengefühl, the feeling for the small persons".

Opinion polls in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommerm suggest Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is at risk of damaging defeats. It would raise further questions regarding the chancellor's future.

While the CDU saw its vote halved, these latest elections come after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won a major victory in the state of Saxony-Anhalt two weeks ago.

There has been speculation in Germany that Merz could be replaced as chancellor mid-term unless the CDU's political fortunes improve.

Though his challengers are "still hesitating", writes German news site Tagesschau, external, he has remarked he will carry on but is facing poor approval ratings against the backdrop of rumours of a so-called chancellor swap.

Meanwhile in the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the CDU has only just been hovering above the 5% threshold needed for a party to enter the state parliament. It could spell their worst ever result in a state election.

How did it come to this after just 16 months in power? While the political force that he aimed to counter – the AfD – continues its rise, friedrich Merz is having to answer for the tumbling popularity of his own party.

Some branches of the AfD are classed as right-wing extremist by domestic intelligence, a designation it strongly rejects.

But its anti-immigration, Russian-friendly, Germany-first agenda has discovered fertile ground in the country's former communist east.

Meanwhile, the AfD is hoping to build on its recent landslide win in Saxony-Anhalt by topping the polls in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

Nevertheless, the centre-left SPD has staged a late comeback to be in contention for the top spot through its lead candidate, Manuela Schwesig.

At present the state premier, Schwesig is trying to sweep up the anti-AfD vote as she bills herself as the "Die Frau gegen Blau" – "Woman against Blue", the AfD's party colours.

But her local popularity belies the far poorer fortunes of her national party which is locked in a loveless coalition with Merz's CDU.

In a queue for a campaign event in the city of Neubrandenburg, AfD supporter Reinhart tells us that the traditional parties are being washed away.

"Not only in Germany. In Italy, in France, in Great Britain. Everywhere the traditional parties go down."

He smiles when asked what he thinks of Merz, saying: Oh well everyone thinks the same regarding him.

"He is arrogant, out of touch, not on the same level as the general public."

Merz's backers argue that the chancellor has had a tough time with global events and that a lot of the challenges the nation faces are ones he has inherited.

But whatever faith individuals had in his ability to fix those difficulties, it is apparently ebbing away – and, the brutal truth is, it can be hard to find voters who like him.

In practice, the former corporate lawyer's tack to the right on problems like immigration has failed to erode AfD backing while additionally alienating residents further to the left.

His blunt communication style has additionally caused irritation, such as his dismissal of "work-life balance", telling Germans they need to work more and take less sick leave.

Supporters would argue he is a man who is ready to administer the medicine the nation needs, even if individuals do not like the taste of it.

But the country's long-stuttering economy, high energy costs and fraught debates regarding immigration are feeding a sense of national gloom.

Earlier this week, the leaders of eight German states backed Merz and remarked restorting trust in the CDU lay in "listening and taking political action, not in debates over personnel".

But while no one within his party has openly challenged Merz for the top job, murmurings of discontent have grown louder.

"Maybe he wants the right things, " muses Rohloff, but "he cannot communicate well".

Asked if Merz should go, he notes it is not an straightforward question but: "If I have to answer yes or no, I would say yes. There are other individuals who maybe have better feelings for the public."

Merz has vowed to carry on as his coalition administration seeks to push through a package of economic, tax and welfare reforms that are finally due before parliament this autumn.

But Sunday's vote brings a danger for the chancellor – that he is already out of time.

In practice, the chancellor is reportedly due to meet senior party figures in Berlin on Sunday evening having already cancelled a planned trip next week to New York, in an apparent effort to contain the crisis.

Meanwhile, a staunch backer of Ukraine, the fall of Friedrich Merz would trigger further instability in a continent already rocked by warnings of rose Russian aggression.

For now, german elections under way which could decide fate of Chancellor Merz remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.