GOP Chances of Losing Alaska Governor's Race as Dems Take Top Primary Spots

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Key points

• Trump carried Alaska by 13 points in 2024, 10 points in 2020 and 15 points in 2016.
• It surveyed 1, 923 probable voters April 16-19, demonstrated that on the final round of ranked choice, Begich led Wilson 53.9 percent to 46.1 percent.
• Newsweek reached out to the gubernatorial campaigns of Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, Tom Begich, Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, Treg Taylor and Click Bishop for comment via email.
• As of August 3, there were 141, 995 registered Republicans and 69, 889 registered Democrats in Alaska.
• It surveyed 1, 528 registered voters June 30-July 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

Democrats are hoping to take Alaska's governor's office for the first time in almost 30 years, eyeing a rare opportunity in a state that has voted reliably Republican for decades. Alaska voters created their decision in the primaries on Tuesday, and it appears that two Democrats and two Republicans will advance to the November general election under the state's unique jungle primary system. As they believe President Donald Trump's declining national approval rating gives them an opportunity to expand the electoral battleground, although Alaska has historically leaned toward Republicans, Democrats view it as a potential gain in this year's midterms. The Senate race, in which GOP Senator Dan Sullivan is facing a challenge from Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola, is viewed as one of the most competitive races of the midterms. Though limited polling suggests it is competitive, forecasters like the Cook Political Report have viewed the governor's race as more favorable to Republicans. Alaska's employ of ranked-choice voting adds another layer of uncertainty to the race ahead of November. Newsweek reached out to the gubernatorial campaigns of Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, Tom Begich, Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, Treg Taylor and Click Bishop for comment via email. Alaska Jungle Primary, Ranked-Choice Voting Explained Alaska uses an electoral system unlike other states. It uses both a nonpartisan top-four primary system and ranked-choice voting for the general election. In the primary, all candidates appeared on a single ballot regardless of political party, and the four candidates with the most votes advance to the general election. In the general election, voters will rank the four candidates according to their preference. If no candidate reaches an outright majority, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated, and their voters are redistributed based on their second choice. If again no candidate wins 50 percent plus one, the process is repeated between the final two candidates. Most other states hold partisan primaries and employ a first-past-the-post system in the general election. The new electoral system was implemented in the 2022 election cycle, and this will be the second gubernatorial race using it. Alaska Governor's Race Jungle Primary Results As of Wednesday morning, former state Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and former state Senator Tom Begich, both Democrats, had advanced to the general election, according to the Associated Press. While Begich's backing stood at 20.1 percent, kreiss-Tomkins led the field with 21.7 percent of the vote. The other two spots had not been called. While former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson's was at 8.4 percent, businesswoman Bernadette Wilson's backing stood at 10.5 percent. While former state Senator Click Bishop had received 7.1 percent, former Attorney General Treg Taylor's backing stood at 7.5 percent. For context, a number of other candidates received less than 6 percent of the vote. Only 80 percent of the vote had been counted as of Wednesday morning, so the numbers could still change. While Democrats had the top two spots in the primary, Republicans were still on track to win more votes. While Republican candidates received 66, 743, according to the AP, with 80 percent of the vote in, Democrats had 54, 479 votes. There were two Democrats on the ballot compared to a dozen Republicans. Democrats Chances of Flipping Alaska Governor's Seat, According to Polls The latest poll from Alaska Survey Research indicated that on the final round of ranked-choice voting between Begich and Wilson, Begich held a 2-point lead, 51 percent to 49 percent. It surveyed 1, 528 registered voters June 30-July 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. An earlier Alaska Survey Research poll. It surveyed 1, 923 probable voters April 16-19, demonstrated that on the final round of ranked choice, Begich led Wilson 53.9 percent to 46.1 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. What Prediction Markets Show Democrats' chances of winning the governor's race have lately climbed on Kalshi. Republicans had been favored until August 12, but Democrats are now viewed as the favored party on the prediction market. Their chances of flipping the seat stood at 56 percent on Wednesday. While Begich had a 26 percent chance, on Polymarket, Kreiss-Tomkins had a 27 percent chance of winning in November. While Bronson had a 5 percent chance, wilson's chances stood at 22 percent. Taylor was at 4 percent, with Bishop at 2 percent as of Wednesday. Prediction markets allow traders to purchase and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑capital wagers into probability estimates. Rates fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future. Alaska's Independent Streak Over the past few decades, Republicans' margins in Alaska have narrowed as leftward shifts in places like Anchorage offer Democrats hope that the state could become more competitive. For much of the early 2000s, the state was solidly Republican, but elections have been closer in the Trump era. Trump carried Alaska by 13 points in 2024, 10 points in 2020 and 15 points in 2016. Republicans additionally won Alaska by 14 points in 2012, almost 22 points in 2008, 26 points in 2004 and 31 points in 2000. As of August 3, there were 141, 995 registered Republicans and 69, 889 registered Democrats in Alaska. Nevertheless, there were 81, 801 nonpartisan and 298, 273 unaffiliated voters, making them the largest voting bloc, according to the Alaska Division of Elections. Alaska has more of an independent streak compared to plenty of states where partisan politics dominate. Its state Senate has a majority coalition created up of Democrats and moderate Republicans, and it has elected Democrats statewide before, with Peltola the most recent. Alaska's other Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski, is additionally known as one of the most centrist in the chamber and has been willing to break with her party on key matters. When Did Alaska Last Elect a Democratic Governor? When voters reelected Governor Tony Knowles, alaska last elected a Democratic governor in 1998. As governor, four years afterwards, voters elected Senator Frank Murkowski, Lisa's father. As governor, in 2014, Alaska elected Bill Walker, an independent and former Republican. Walker ran in the 2026 primary but trailed other candidates with only 4.4 percent of the vote with 80 percent reporting. What Happens Next Forecasters offer Republicans an advantage. The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the race as Probable Republican. Polls will continue to be watched as a gauge of the electorate's mood ahead of the midterms on November 3. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Dave Siminoff.

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Alaska voters created their decision in the primaries on Tuesday, and it appears that two Democrats and two Republicans will advance to the November general election under the state's unique jungle primary system.

As they believe President Donald Trump's declining national approval rating gives them an opportunity to expand the electoral battleground, although Alaska has historically leaned toward Republicans, Democrats view it as a potential gain in this year's midterms. The Senate race, in which GOP Senator Dan Sullivan is facing a challenge from Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola, is viewed as one of the most competitive races of the midterms.

Though limited polling suggests it is competitive, forecasters like the Cook Political Report have viewed the governor's race as more favorable to Republicans. Alaska's employ of ranked-choice voting adds another layer of uncertainty to the race ahead of November.

Newsweek reached out to the gubernatorial campaigns of Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, Tom Begich, Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, Treg Taylor and Click Bishop for comment via email. Alaska Jungle Primary, Ranked-Choice Voting Explained.

Alaska uses an electoral system unlike other states. It uses both a nonpartisan top-four primary system and ranked-choice voting for the general election.

In the primary, all candidates appeared on a single ballot regardless of political party, and the four candidates with the most votes advance to the general election.

In the general election, voters will rank the four candidates according to their preference. If no candidate reaches an outright majority, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated, and their voters are redistributed based on their second choice. If again no candidate wins 50 percent plus one, the process is repeated between the final two candidates.

Most other states hold partisan primaries and employ a first-past-the-post system in the general election. The new electoral system was implemented in the 2022 election cycle, and this will be the second gubernatorial race using it. Alaska Governor's Race Jungle Primary Results.

As of Wednesday morning, former state Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and former state Senator Tom Begich, both Democrats, had advanced to the general election, according to the Associated Press. While Begich's backing stood at 20.1 percent, kreiss-Tomkins led the field with 21.7 percent of the vote.

Notably, the other two spots had not been called. While former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson's was at 8.4 percent, businesswoman Bernadette Wilson's backing stood at 10.5 percent. While former state Senator Click Bishop had received 7.1 percent, former Attorney General Treg Taylor's backing stood at 7.5 percent. A number of other candidates received less than 6 percent of the vote.

Only 80 percent of the vote had been counted as of Wednesday morning, so the numbers could still change.

While Democrats had the top two spots in the primary, Republicans were still on track to win more votes. While Republican candidates received 66, 743, according to the AP, with 80 percent of the vote in, Democrats had 54, 479 votes. There were two Democrats on the ballot compared to a dozen Republicans. Democrats Chances of Flipping Alaska Governor's Seat, According to Polls.

For context, the latest poll from Alaska Survey Research indicated that on the final round of ranked-choice voting between Begich and Wilson, Begich held a 2-point lead, 51 percent to 49 percent. It surveyed 1, 528 registered voters June 30-July 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

For context, an earlier Alaska Survey Research poll. It surveyed 1, 923 probable voters April 16-19, demonstrated that on the final round of ranked choice, Begich led Wilson 53.9 percent to 46.1 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Democrats' chances of winning the governor's race have lately climbed on Kalshi. Republicans had been favored until August 12, but Democrats are now viewed as the favored party on the prediction market. Their chances of flipping the seat stood at 56 percent on Wednesday.

While Begich had a 26 percent chance, on Polymarket, Kreiss-Tomkins had a 27 percent chance of winning in November. While Bronson had a 5 percent chance, wilson's chances stood at 22 percent. Taylor was at 4 percent, with Bishop at 2 percent as of Wednesday.

Prediction markets allow traders to purchase and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑capital wagers into probability estimates.

Rates fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Over the past few decades, Republicans' margins in Alaska have narrowed as leftward shifts in places like Anchorage offer Democrats hope that the state could become more competitive. For much of the early 2000s, the state was solidly Republican, but elections have been closer in the Trump era.

Trump carried Alaska by 13 points in 2024, 10 points in 2020 and 15 points in 2016. Republicans additionally won Alaska by 14 points in 2012, almost 22 points in 2008, 26 points in 2004 and 31 points in 2000.

As of August 3, there were 141, 995 registered Republicans and 69, 889 registered Democrats in Alaska. Nevertheless, there were 81, 801 nonpartisan and 298, 273 unaffiliated voters, making them the largest voting bloc, according to the Alaska Division of Elections.

Alaska has more of an independent streak compared to plenty of states where partisan politics dominate. Its state Senate has a majority coalition created up of Democrats and moderate Republicans, and it has elected Democrats statewide before, with Peltola the most recent.

Alaska's other Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski, is additionally known as one of the most centrist in the chamber and has been willing to break with her party on key matters. When Did Alaska Last Elect a Democratic Governor?

When voters reelected Governor Tony Knowles, alaska last elected a Democratic governor in 1998. As governor, four years afterwards, voters elected Senator Frank Murkowski, Lisa's father.

As governor, in 2014, Alaska elected Bill Walker, an independent and former Republican. Walker ran in the 2026 primary but trailed other candidates with only 4.4 percent of the vote with 80 percent reporting.

Forecasters offer Republicans an advantage. The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the race as Probable Republican. Polls will continue to be watched as a gauge of the electorate's mood ahead of the midterms on November 3. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Dave Siminoff.

For now, GOP Chances of Losing Alaska Governor& #039; s Race as Dems Take Top Primary remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.