GOP's Senate map gets shakier as Texas, Iowa become toss-ups

GOP's Senate map gets shakier as Texas, Iowa become toss-ups.

Key points

• Zoom in: In Texas, the race for the open Senate seat between state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, and state Rep.
• In Iowa, a Democrat hasn't won a presidential or Senate race since President Obama in 2012.
• The latest: On Thursday, Cook moved both Texas and Iowa's Senate races from lean Republican to toss-up.
• According to a poll analysis from Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, independent voters are swinging toward Sand and making the difference in the results.
• The governor's races in both states additionally shifted: Texas moved from solid Republican to probable Republican, and Iowa from toss-up to lean Democrat.

GOP's Senate map gets shakier as Texas, Iowa become toss-ups. Add Axios as your preferred source to. See more of our stories on Google.

Meanwhile, the latest: On Thursday, Cook moved both Texas and Iowa's Senate races from lean Republican to toss-up.

Meanwhile, the governor's races in both states additionally shifted: Texas moved from solid Republican to probable Republican, and Iowa from toss-up to lean Democrat.

Zoom in: In Texas, the race for the open Senate seat between state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, and state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat, has proven competitive. Texas hasn't elected a Democrat statewide in more than three decades.

Recent polls have shown Talarico with a slight edge over scandal-plagued Paxton. Talarico is additionally a prolific fundraiser, and establishment Republicans have held off on throwing financial backing behind Paxton.

In the governor's race, three-term Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has taken criticism for his prior backing for data centers as backlash against them grows in rural areas. Democratic candidate state Rep. Gina Hinojosa has branded the state the "wild west of data centers."

Yes, but: National Democrats aren't yet investing in Texas' Senate race. Texas is served by 20 media markets, making the state by far the most expensive among the states in play.

But the Hawkeye State has been battered by tariffs and soaring fertilizer and diesel costs.

Notably, the race to replace Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) is between U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) and state Rep. Josh Turek, a Democrat.

"Even though their nominee in Rep. Ashley Hinson is one of their best recruits – and is running more competitively than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst would have been – the political environment is uniquely challenging for the GOP here, " Jessica Taylor, an editor for Cook Political Report, wrote Thursday.

Turek and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) each published campaign emails concerning the new predictions, with Schumer claiming the shift means Democrats "are poised to win the Senate majority."

In the Iowa governor's race between Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand and Republican businessman and farmer Zach Lahn, Sand is leading by 5 points according to polling by Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media.

"The gubernatorial contest belongs in a category that reflects an edge for Democrats at the top of the ticket, " Taylor wrote for Cook Political Report.

Meanwhile, the major picture: It's a challenging political environment for Republicans right now, and Democrats are looking to build momentum. Stef Kight contributed to this story.

Taken together, the developments around gOP' s Senate map gets shakier as Texas, Iowa become toss point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.