How major demographic swings propelled Democrats to a midterm rout

How major demographic swings propelled Democrats to a midterm rout.

Key points

• Democrats won Hispanic voters by a 62%-35% margin nationally ‒ a 22-point swing after Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris won the cohort 51%-46% in the 2024 election.
• Democrats won female voters in the midterms by 18 percentage points, 58%-40% ‒ a shift of 10 points toward Democrats from 2024.
• After losing Catholic voters by 20 percentage points in 2024, Democrats only lost them by 2 percentage points in the midterms.
• Democrats flip Congress in the 2026 midterms, delivering a major political setback for President Trump.
• Figures are according to exit-poll data taken by the Associated Press in conjunction with the five major television networks, compared to exit polls in the 2024 election.

How major demographic swings propelled Democrats to a midterm rout. Joey Garrison USA TODAY. Democrats take control of Congress in major blow to Trump.

WASHINGTON – Democrats pulled off a stunning midterm rout by making sizable inroads with almost every major demographic as Americans delivered one of the most resounding midterm rebukes in modern U.S. History.

In practice, the outcome marked regarding a 15-point national swing toward Democrats from the 2024 election, led by significant double-digit shifts among young, Latino and first-time voters – groups that President Donald Trump had produced notable inroads with in the 2024 election.

Midterm voters younger than 30 years old backed Democrats by a whopping 72%-25% spread ‒ a 36-point swing after Trump only lost the group by 11 percentage points in 2024. The swing was most pronounced among young men under 30. This person voted for Democrats 66%-31% after Trump carried young men in 2024 by a 49%-48% margin.

Voters who cast their ballots for the first time in the midterm election backed Democrats 64%-34% ‒ a 41-point swing after Trump won first-time voters 55%-44% in the 2024 election.

Figures are according to exit-poll data taken by the Associated Press in conjunction with the five major television networks, compared to exit polls in the 2024 election. It was an unmistakable repudiation of Trump's second term. More: How Trump ignited a midterm drubbing for Republicans.

Fueled by these and other significant demographic shifts, Democrats scored upset wins nationwide, flipping at least seven Republican-held Senate seats, including in traditionally Republican states such as Texas, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina. When Hebert Hoover was president, texas hadn't elected a Democratic U.S. Senator since 1988; and Kansas not since 1932.

Democrats have a chance to widen their Senate majority further with potential victories in Mississippi and Alaska ‒ two other reliably red states where Democrats are clinging to slim leads as votes are still being counted. Democrats additionally took control of the House of Representatives, flipping at least 35 seats previously held by Republicans, including in districts that Trump carried by more than 20 percentage points. The shellacking for Republicans was throughout the board.

Americans who lack college degrees ‒ the backbone of Trump's MAGA base ‒ backed Republicans by only a four-point-margin, 51%-47%, in this year's midterms. It was a 9-point shift toward Democrats after Trump won non-college educated voters 56%-43% in 2024.

Democrats won college-educated voters ‒ a recent stronghold for the party ‒ by a 62%-36% margin. The 26-point difference was a swing of 12 percentage points toward Democrats from the 2024 election.

Live updates: VP Vance blames Iran war for Dem landslide in House, Senate.

Against the backdrop of worries regarding the rising cost of living, Americans who earn $50, 000 or less voted for Democrats 57%-41% ‒ a sizable 18-point shift after Trump won the same group 50%-48% in 2024. Democrats additionally won among voters who earn more than $100, 000 by 12 percentage points, an 8-point swing after they won this group by four percentage points in 2024.

Longtime pollster Frank Luntz remarked most voters who went from casting ballots for Trump in 2024 to voting for Democrats in the midterms had one thing in common: they felt misled by Trump's campaign promise to lower costs.

"They felt disappointed and just disillusioned with what's happened over the past two years, specifically over affordability, " Luntz remarked, pointing to findings in a focus group he conducted of Republican midterm voters from key battleground states. "They all ‒ no matter what part of the country they were from ‒ complained about how high prices had gotten and how they had been promised lower prices."

By far, the top midterm matter was the the economy, with 39% of voters calling it the most notable matter facing the country, followed by the state of democracy at 32%, and immigration at 11%.

Male voters broke even in the midterms, with Democrats and Republicans getting backing from 49% of men after Trump won male voters by a dozen percentage points in 2024. Democrats won female voters in the midterms by 18 percentage points, 58%-40% ‒ a shift of 10 points toward Democrats from 2024. 'I wasn't on the ballot': Trump distances himself from midterm results.

After losing Catholic voters by 20 percentage points in 2024, Democrats only lost them by 2 percentage points in the midterms. Republicans still won voters who identify as Protestant Christians by a wide 22 percentage points, but was a closer margin than the 27-point differential in the 2024 election.

One of the only demographics that shifted away from Democrats appeared to be Jewish voters. Though Jewish voters backed Democrats 68%-31% in the midterms, Harris won Jewish voters 78%-22% over Trump in the 2024 election. The shift comes as Israel's war in Gaza and U.S. Military backing for Israel have increasingly become galvanizing problem within the Democratic Party.

And despite the major night for Democrats, only 47% of midterm voters stated they had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party.

"This is no endorsement of the Democratic Party or the Democratic agenda, " Luntz continued. "It was rejection on what happened, or more importantly what didn't happen, over the last two years." Share your feedback to support improve our site!

For now, how major demographic swings propelled Democrats to a midterm rout remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.