In key Iowa Senate race, Democrat Josh Turek leads Ashley Hinson-Poll

In key Iowa Senate race, Democrat Josh Turek leads Ashley Hinson-Poll.

Key points

• Turek had the backing of 96% of Democrats, Hinson of 87% of Republicans – and GOP voters outnumbered Democrats in the Suffolk survey, 39% to 30%.
• The Iowa governor's race is heading toward a runaway: Democrat Rob Sand has a double-digit edge over Republican Zach Lahn, 55%-43%.
• Hinson has a net negative favorable rating of 5 points, 43%-48%, compared with Turek's net positive rating of 7 points, 44%-37%.
• In the White House race just two years ago, Trump crushed Democrat Kamala Harris in Iowa by 13 percentage points.
• "We're seeing independents turning their backs on Republican candidates in three states in a row, " remarked David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

In key Iowa Senate race, Democrat Josh Turek leads Ashley Hinson-Poll. Susan Page USA TODAY. Election 2026: What happens if Republicans lose the November midterms.

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In Iowa's crucial Senate race, Democrat Josh Turek narrowly leads Republican Ashley Hinson 48%-44% in a new Suffolk University Poll – one more red flag for Republicans in territory that is typically friendly.

Among the voters Hinson has lost, one in four cite her association with President Donald Trump as the reason.

In the White House race just two years ago, Trump crushed Democrat Kamala Harris in Iowa by 13 percentage points. But unhappiness with his leadership, especially on the economy, has created the Hawkeye state one of the leading prospects for Democrats to flip in their push for control of the U.S. Senate.

In practice, the survey of 500 probable midterm voters, taken Oct. 1-4, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points.

Meanwhile, the Iowa governor's race is heading toward a runaway: Democrat Rob Sand has a double-digit edge over Republican Zach Lahn, 55%-43%.

That is notable in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat as governor in two decades. Trump's red-state itinerary: Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma. The GOP's heartburn is nationwide.

Trump has embarked on a campaign tour not of swing states but of red ones. He headlined a campaign rally in Grand Island, Nebraska, on Oct. 5 and was scheduled to hold another Oct. 7 in San Antonio, both states that Republicans traditionally consider safe. For context, a week earlier, he appeared in Oklahoma, Alabama and Ohio.

But Trump's political embrace is a double-edged sword even in such reliably GOP states as Iowa. His favorable-unfavorable rating in the Suffolk poll is a dismal 42%-57%, 15 points underwater. Among Trump's 2024 voters who aren't supporting Hinson now, 24% named as a reason that she was a "sycophant" or "puppet" of Trump.

To be fair, the Democratic candidates in the state don't see the advantage in being joined on the campaign trail by their 2024 nominee. Both Turek and Sand have remarked they didn't want Harris to campaign on their behalf in Iowa.

Iowa has become one of Senate races that Democrats are targeting in states that had once seemed like long shots, additionally including Alaska, Ohio and Texas. To win control, Democrats need to flip four red seats and retain all those they hold now.

For Iowa's agricultural economy, Trump's tariffs have hit corn and soybean exports, and the war in Iran has driven up the cost of diesel fuel.

Asked to name the economic problems most affecting their household budgets now, 28% cited grocery costs and another 28% gas and fuel costs. One in five named health care.

In recent weeks, some Iowa GOP officeholders have broken ranks with Trump. Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks in September joined Democrats to backing a resolution directing the president to remove U.S. Forces from Iran unless he had congressional authorization. Independents 'turn their backs' on GOP.

But independents offered Turek his lead, splitting 58%-30% in his favor.

"We're seeing independents turning their backs on Republican candidates in three states in a row, " remarked David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "These are the people who swing state elections and they are looking unfavorably toward President Trump, the Iran war, high fuel prices, strained personal finances, and the opposition to federal tax benefits for local AI data centers potentially impacting their water and power grids."

In other recent Suffolk polls, independents backed Michigan Senate Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed by 16 points. In Ohio, they backed Democrat Sherrod Brown by 27.

In the Iowa Senate race, 6% were undecided and 2% backed Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn.

Hinson has a net negative favorable rating of 5 points, 43%-48%, compared with Turek's net positive rating of 7 points, 44%-37%. But 16% were undecided regarding Turek and another 3% had never heard of him – a potential opening for both him and his opponent to produce their case.

Susan Page, the Washington Bureau chief of USA TODAY, has covered the last 12 presidential elections. Share your feedback to support improve our site!

Taken together, the developments around in key Iowa Senate race, Democrat Josh Turek leads Ashley Hinson point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.