including most recently during the Biden administration

Why the Biden administration fears a new China shock. Add Axios as your preferred source to.

BusinessNews Info Wire5 min read
including most recently during the Biden administration

Why the Biden administration fears a new China shock. Add Axios as your preferred source to.

Article outline

  1. What happened
  2. The key numbers
  3. Official response
  4. Why it matters
  5. Reaction
  6. The bottom line

Key points

  • In the years after China joined the World Trade Organization in the early 2000s, it rapidly upped manufacturing and then exported these goods for cheap.
  • Ship docked in China in the late 1700s, marking the official start of U.S.-China trade relations.).
  • Authorities see notable distinctions between U.S.-style industrial policy and that in China – but the Chinese see American hypocrisy.
  • Authorities say, is that those Chinese products are being exported at depressed costs, an allegation confirmed by some independent China watchers.
  • What they're saying: "We've seen this story before, " Yellen remarked Monday during a press conference at the U.S.

But standing in the way is China's own industrial policy. It massively subsidizes some of the same industries.

U.S. Authorities see notable distinctions between U.S.-style industrial policy and that in China – but the Chinese see American hypocrisy.

Context: China has unleashed a wave of administration backing to certain industrial sectors in an attempt to goose its economy. It is taking a hit from slumping activity in the real estate industry that once served as a key center for expansion.

That backing has resulted in businesses producing numerous more solar panels, electric vehicles and other products than China's economy can absorb – and firms willing to sell them globally at a loss.

Meanwhile, the result, U.S. Authorities say, is that those Chinese products are being exported at depressed costs, an allegation confirmed by some independent China watchers.

Notably, the fear is that firms in the U.S., Europe, and non-China emerging markets will never be able to gain a toehold in these sectors that are key to the global energy future so long as they have to compete with highly subsidized Chinese rivals.

Flashback: This is resurfacing bad economic memories for those, like Yellen. This person experienced the so-called China shock.

As the world's most populous nation became more intertwined in the global economy, it created a glut of products that slammed global markets, pulling down rates but causing economic damage in the West that was particularly acute in certain industries and regions.

Mainstream economists – including Yellen – were caught off guard by the scale and intensity of disruption to the U.S. Industrial base from that earlier wave of globalization.

What they're saying: "We've seen this story before, " Yellen remarked Monday during a press conference at the U.S. Ambassador's residence in Beijing. "I've made clear that President Biden and I will not accept that reality again."

In response to a question from Axios regarding what actions against China the Biden administration is willing to take, Yellen stated: "I simply would say it would not be acceptable to the United States and President Biden to allow this to happen again."

Exactly what the appropriate tools would be to contain that threat, Yellen didn't say. She remarked she doesn't want "to get ahead of where we are on this."

Reminders of China's intense focus on certain industries, like electric vehicles, could be seen along Yellen's travels in the southern city of Guangzhou, where she held a number of rounds of negotiations with the country's economic czar. (The city is where the first U.S. Ship docked in China in the late 1700s, marking the official start of U.S.-China trade relations.).

On the way from the airport was a sprawling "experience store" opened by Lotus, the electric vehicle maker owned by Chinese firm Geely.

En route to discussions with the nation's top economic czar was a BYD storefront showing some of the cheap vehicles that, for a short period last year, outsold Tesla worldwide.

Notably, the major picture: An inherent tension with the tough talk against China's overproduction is that affordable green technology could drive quicker adoption rates in the near term while undermining global green tech investment in the medium term.

Notably, the other side: Chinese state media documented that China's most-senior commerce official stated accusations regarding overcapacity were "groundless, " noting that its electric vehicle development has produced "important contributions in the process of the world's green transitioning."

In bilateral discussions this week – which office-holders described as cordial and respectful, contrasting the stretch of gloomy weather – China pointed fingers back at the U.S.

"It was like, 'You talk about our policies, but you have some also, '" a senior Treasury official remarked.

U.S. Authorities believe the two policies are distinct. For one, they say the scale of subsidies in China's economy dwarfs those in other countries pursuing similar strategies.

Another difference: The U.S. Incentives aim to produce goods for the domestic economy, not necessarily for purposes of major exports.

In practice, the bottom line: Yellen's public interactions with influential China authorities – often friendly with smiles and laughs – backed up what she stated was apparent behind closed doors: U.S.-China economic relations are on more solid footing than at the start of the Biden presidency.

But substantive tensions remain high: Yellen has been clear regarding the Biden administration's willingness to shield U.S. Industries from the potential for another China shock.

Taken together, the developments around including most recently during the Biden administration point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.

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