Lula's comeback in Brazil dents Trump's ambitions for Latin America

"Brazil will not accept being anyone's backyard, " Brazil's left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva declared in his election victory speech, a message squarely aimed at Washington.

Key points

• Latin America has swung to the right, with Ecuador, Chile, Colombia, Argentina and Peru all electing presidents closely aligned with the Trump administration.
• Brazil is Latin America's largest economy, and the younger Bolsonaro was projected to join Trump's "Shield of Americas" coalition against narco-trafficking.
• He lambasted Washington for designating Brazil's two major gangs as terrorist organisations after lobbying from Flávio Bolsonaro, and cautioned of attacks on Brazilian sovereignty.
• Lula has additionally vehemently resisted US military action in the region, from the seizure of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela to the bombing of alleged drug-trafficking vessels.
• Lula's supporters responded by sharing his messages through a 10-million-strong WhatsApp group to bypass the algorithms.

Domestic elections are rarely won on foreign policy, and this one was no different. But Lula's defiance against what he has described as US interference in Brazilian affairs evoked a patriotic spirit that proved an effective campaigning tool.

It additionally chimed with his wider brand of politics as a former union leader: standing up to powerful figures.

Paradoxically, it seems to have earned him President Donald Trump's respect. "I like Lula, we get along well, " Trump remarked, responding to the result. "I didn't take sides, " he continued, before calling the election "terrible" and "rigged". Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil election comeback.

If that sounds muddled, it is since the relationship between the two men is not straightforward. Trump did not explicitly endorse Lula's rival Flávio Bolsonaro. This person refused to recognise the result. But Trump was a close ally of Flávio's father, the former President Jair Bolsonaro.

When I spoke to Lula at his residence regarding a year ago, relations had hit rock bottom. He informed me he had "no relationship" with Trump, that they had never spoken, and that he had no intention of picking up the phone. Trump had lately imposed punitive tariffs on Brazil, largely as a political response to Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial. It the US president called a "witch-hunt".

As some US allies did, Lula fought back – and it paid off, rather than tiptoeing around Trump.

He created fiery speeches invoking Brazilian sovereignty, attacked US interference in the judicial process, and took to wearing a blue cap reading "Brazil belongs to Brazilians". His approval ratings jumped.

He accused the Bolsonaro family. This person had lobbied for the tariffs, of being unpatriotic – a blow to a political right that so often claims patriotism as its terrain.

Even some in the agricultural lobby, typically solid Bolsonaro supporters but reliant on US trade, thought Lula had a point.

Although they have since risen again, the US eventually backed down and reduced the tariffs.

Notably, the two men spoke at the United Nations and afterwards met in the Oval Office, where Trump called the negotiations "very good" and Lula noted he left "very satisfied". Another indication, perhaps, that Trump likes a solid leader. Fireworks heard after Lula's victory in São Paulo. So why might Trump be unhappy with the result?

Latin America has swung to the right, with Ecuador, Chile, Colombia, Argentina and Peru all electing presidents closely aligned with the Trump administration. Trump has sought to employ these allies to establish US dominance in the Western Hemisphere, a strategy he has dubbed the "Donroe Doctrine".

Christopher Sabatini, senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House, notes that Trump thought Brazil would be the "10th and biggest prize" after Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round.

Brazil additionally holds the world's second-largest reserves of rare earth minerals after China, and the US had been eyeing preferential access.

For context, the relationship has thawed, but with four more years ahead for Lula, a number of matters could reignite tensions.

Brazil accused the US earlier this year of trying to cast doubt on its electoral system and denied visas to two state department authorities planning to visit.

For context, the US called this "baseless" and revoked the Brazilian ambassador's visa in response.

If Trump keeps calling this result "rigged", further diplomatic fallout is probable.

It is a sensitive subject for a political left that remembers the region's brutal 20th Century dictatorships, plenty of backed by the CIA in the name of stopping communism. Then there is US tech. Lula's campaign accused Meta of favouring Flávio Bolsonaro.

Meta denied this but admitted moderation problems and technical errors had wrongly removed some posts or limited their reach.

Separately, the Trump administration is unhappy with Pix, Brazil's instant payment system. It has boosted the economy, but which the US sees as taking business from Visa and Mastercard. The relationship has exposed political divisions.

While Lula and his supporters accused Flávio Bolsonaro of protecting US interests over Brazil's, in the campaign, Bolsonaro supporters waved US flags at their rallies and, in one case, an inflatable saying "Trump Nuke Brazil". Still, tensions can be overstated.

For context, the US remains Brazil's second-biggest trading partner after China, and for now the two leaders obtain on.

Whether that lasts will depend on how far the US tries to intervene in Brazilian affairs, and how bullish Lula is in response.

In short, lula' s comeback in Brazil dents Trump' s ambitions for Latin America is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.