New Texas Senate poll signals shift for GOP as early voting nears

New Texas Senate poll signals shift for GOP as early voting nears.

Key points

• While Talarico leads among younger voters, ages18 to 29, 49%-37%, the poll discovered that Paxton leads among voters over 65, 58%-38%.
• Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa in a statistical tie, with the governor ahead 48% to 44% – within the poll's margin of error.
• The poll measured Talarico's favorability – 42% favorable, 41% unfavorable – but did not ask regarding Paxton's.
• Senate race in Texas, Ken Paxton didn't yet have a law degree and James Talarico wasn't even born.
• Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin.

New Texas Senate poll signals shift for GOP as early voting nears. Mateo Rosiles USA TODAY NETWORK. USA TODAY's Susan Page breaks down key midterm election races.

Can the GOP avert disaster in the midterm elections, or will it be a blue tsunami for Democrats? Here are five key races to watch.

With 10 days until early voting starts in Texas for the midterm elections, a new poll suggests momentum may be shifting back in Republicans' favor in two key races.

For context, a new UMass Lowell/YouGov poll, published Oct. 8, demonstrates Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 45%, with 7% of respondents undecided.

"The last time Democrats won a U.S. Senate race in Texas, Ken Paxton didn't yet have a law degree and James Talarico wasn't even born. With the race tied, anything can happen between now and the election, " remarked John Cluverius, director of survey research for the Center for Public Opinion at UMass Lowell.

Talarico has led Paxton in most September and October polls, sometimes by margins outside the poll's error.

It remains to be seen whether Trump's visits to the Lone Star State have affected the polls, or whether Talarico's absence from the campaign trail for regarding two weeks has.

As early voting begins Oct, here's what the poll discovered concerning the Senate and governor's races. 19. Ken Paxton, James Talarico in dead heat in Texas Senate race.

For context, the poll surveyed 850 probable Texas voters from Sept. 18-28 and has an adjusted margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

While Talarico leads among younger voters, ages18 to 29, 49%-37%, the poll discovered that Paxton leads among voters over 65, 58%-38%. Hispanic and Black voters are additionally breaking for Talarico over Paxton, 48%-42% and 67%-17% respectively.

Notably, the poll measured Talarico's favorability – 42% favorable, 41% unfavorable – but did not ask regarding Paxton's. Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa in Texas Governor's race.

Meanwhile, the poll indicated Gov. Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa in a statistical tie, with the governor ahead 48% to 44% – within the poll's margin of error.

In practice, the poll additionally demonstrated that 6% of voters are still undecided and 1% noted they will not vote. Recent Texas U.S. Senate race polls. Here's what September and October polls indicated. YouGov poll (Oct. 6) – Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%. Emerson College (Sept. 17) – Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%. Notably, the New York Times (Oct. 3) – Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%. Fox News (Oct. 1) – Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%. Major Data Poll (Sept. 27) – Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%. Marist Poll (Sept. 23) – Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%. Texas Southern University (Sept. 22) – Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.

ReconMR Texas Poll (Sept. 17) – Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Obtained a news tip for him? Email him at [email protected]. SMS Facebook Twitter Email. Share your feedback to support improve our site! Share your feedback to support improve our site!

In short, new Texas Senate poll signals shift for GOP as early voting nears is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.