OPEC+ influence wanes amid Iran war, market shifts to China

For context, the conflict, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital export route for Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, and damaged energy infrastructure in a number of member countries, has eroded the alliance's market share and its ability to influence costs.

Key points

• Instead, one of the biggest cost drivers in 2026 has been a steep decline in Chinese crude imports.
• OPEC+ accounted for regarding 40% of global oil output in July, down from more than 48% before the U.S.
• Then, OPEC+ and then-President Donald Trump regularly clashed over oil rates, and traders closely watched the group's decisions for their market impact.
• The war has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, limiting the group's ability to rapidly raise or cut supply to offset losses elsewhere.
• It is constraining multiple producers simultaneously, reducing the group's ability to compensate for losses.

OPEC+ accounted for regarding 40% of global oil output in July, down from more than 48% before the U.S. And Israel attacked Iran in late February, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency data. Regarding four to five percentage points of that decline stemmed from the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC in May. The core group of seven producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, accounted for only a quarter of world output in July.

In practice, the war has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, limiting the group's ability to rapidly raise or cut supply to offset losses elsewhere. Since March, OPEC+ has confirmed six oil output increases, but most have remained largely on paper since of the blockade, with little effect on costs. A brief U.S.-Iran ceasefire in July briefly raised hopes that the strait would reopen, offering a temporary reprieve.

Notably, the contrast with 2019 is stark. Then, OPEC+ and then-President Donald Trump regularly clashed over oil rates, and traders closely watched the group's decisions for their market impact. The key question was how much oil OPEC+ chose to pump. Now, the focus is how much oil can physically be produced and exported against the backdrop of a Middle East war.

While supply disruptions are not new for OPEC, from Kuwait during the 1990-91 Gulf War to Iraq after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, the scale of the current outage is unusual. It is constraining multiple producers simultaneously, reducing the group's ability to compensate for losses.

Instead, one of the biggest cost drivers in 2026 has been a steep decline in Chinese crude imports. Since the war began, China has purchased roughly 400 million fewer barrels of oil than during the same period last year, reflecting a ban on fuel exports, lower refining output and the growing apply of electric transport.

That decline has supported place a ceiling on costs this year, highlighting China's growing role as the world's swing demand center, a function once associated almost exclusively with OPEC+.

China's buying spree last year. It may have accounted for as much as half of global oil demand expansion, assisted underpin the market. Its weaker demand now is balancing oil markets against the backdrop of what analysts describe as the worst-ever supply disruption.

OPEC did not reply to a request for comment. The group notes its decisions are aimed at supporting market stability and it does not target a specific oil rate.

In short, OPEC+ influence wanes amid Iran war, market shifts to China is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.