Pakistan Caught Between Washington And The Widening War

Pakistan Caught Between Washington And The Widening War.

Key points

• Ta'arof And Dual Embeddedness: Why Pakistan Can Mediate Between Washington And Tehran.
• Houthis struck Saudi oil facilities the next morning, and subsequently Israel struck Turkish bases in Syria on 19 August.
• Why India Is Furious Over Pakistan's Indus Valley Civilization Claim.
• Climate-Smart Agriculture As Pakistan's New Social Contract With Nature.
• Washington Owes Pakistan More Than A Counter Terrorism Dialogue.

In practice, an Israeli newspaper alleged that Pakistan had forged an oil accord with Iran, in exchange for guarantees to stop strikes on Saudi bases. By contrast, Islamabad has maintained close coordination with Beijing throughout the entire span of the mediation process.

In my last piece I argued why it is unlikely that the Iran war is going to end anytime shortly. It was the same day that the trilateral Makkah Joint Defence Agreement was signed between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye. That same evening, in an interview I raised a number of questions regarding the scope and nature of this agreement. My scepticism was based on the fundamental point that all three signatories had different threat perceptions, and it was unlikely that one would want to be drawn into the fight of another. I additionally argued that a 'tester' would come along to assess the strength and meaningfulness of this agreement.

Houthis struck Saudi oil facilities the next morning, and subsequently Israel struck Turkish bases in Syria on 19 August. I had additionally voiced my concern concerning some kind of Indian tester against Pakistan via Afghanistan. But after the US envoy Sergi Gore's controversial statement on Kashmir, this might as well come from the LoC itself.So, the war is not ending. On the contrary, it is expanding horizontally.

In the midst of this, Pakistan's accumulated national debt is touching one hundred trillion rupees. While interest payments are projected at $3.5 billion, in the remainder of FY 2026-27, Pakistan needs to pay $18 billion in principal. Pakistan had additionally requested a Bilateral Exchange Stabilisation Backing Facility worth $10 billion from the US, with a maturity of up to five years. In return, the US envoy created a controversial statement on Kashmir, followed by President Trump issuing a warning on Truth Social, in which he cautioned that any country providing Iran "any financial lifeline will face TREMENDOUS Economic consequences." This includes oil smuggling among other things, "It all needs to stop NOW. You know who you are." It is no secret that oil smuggling from Iran takes place via Balochistan, and we know it is Pakistan. So, why this warning for Pakistan?

But after the US envoy Sergi Gore's controversial statement on Kashmir, this might as well come from the LOC itself. So, the war is not ending. On the contrary, it is expanding horizontally.

Notably, the controversial remarks regarding Kashmir by the US envoy in India, Sergi Gore, come against the backdrop of this developing scenario. On the one hand, they win Indian voters ahead of Trump's November elections; on the other, they send a message to the Pakistani establishment that punishment might be inflicted on them for not complying with American intends entirely, the LoC tester. Messages began popping up on X from Arab sources around 15-16 August suggesting that Turkey's President Erdogan is pressuring Pakistan for the release of Imran Khan. If that is true, Trump should have taken credit for his release right away, to win the votes of Pakistanis who had backed his presidency in the hope that he would push for Imran Khan's release. I would hold off on this speculation until Trump himself makes a statement on the matter. As it is being discussed, nevertheless, I am equally sceptical concerning relief for Khan on the pretext of the 28th Amendment. Now shift the lens to the Strait of Hormuz. It trump has declared US territory.

Right after this move, American geopolitical and defence analysts began talking concerning the possibility of the US using tactical nuclear weapons against Iran. Using nukes in the strait itself seems unlikely, as it would badly affect the US-Israel ally the UAE. It sits right at the centre of the waterway. If applied against Iran's mainland, the target could instead be somewhere less populated but of high strategic importance. It's best not to speculate further. So, if we put all these pieces together, what do we obtain? Can Pakistan Hold The Line Between Washington And Tehran?

In practice, the MJDA is being tested. Trump isn't happy with Pakistan. It desperately needs cash to stabilise its economy and currency against the backdrop of mounting loan and interest obligations. Trump's envoy in India sent a solid message to Pakistan, and Israel targeted its new defence partner Turkey's bases in Syria. He has drawn a red circle around Iran, and a yellow one around Pakistan. Those tempted to carry out a cost-benefit analysis, arguing that such a massive action would jeopardise the world economy, badly affect the US economy itself, and kill the petrodollar, and so on, should recall 1929. Prior to the Second World War, America was in the grip of the Great Depression. The war began in 1939, the highly year the Depression concluded. Those who argue that trade relations and economic dependency can prevent war should recall the years preceding the First World War, 1914-1918.

Britain and Germany were each other's major trading partners despite their rivalry, with Britain additionally depending heavily on imported food and raw materials protected by its navy. France was deeply tied to Russia through massive capital investment that financed Russian railways and industrialisation, a financial relationship that additionally underpinned their military alliance. While additionally being tied to the Balkans as key markets and sources of raw materials, austria-Hungary depended economically on Germany, its main ally and largest trading partner. While exporting grain to Western Europe, russia relied on foreign capital, mainly French and Belgian, to fund its industrial expansion. Overall, Britain, France, Germany and Russia were bound together in a dense web of trade and cross-border investment that created their economies mutually dependent even as political and military tensions grew. But all these economic ties and trade relations did not prevent the war. The fate of the region hangs in the balance. Once the heat increases, we might witness plenty of ties, agreements and trade relations melting down, some burning to ashes.

For context, the author holds a PhD from the University of Glasgow, UK. He hosts a political talk show on TV and appears as a political commentator in TV demonstrates. The Makkah Summit And The Emergence Of A New Strategic Axis. Trilateral Defense Pact: Can It Be Converted Into Economic. Iran's $100 Billion Frozen Assets: Leverage, Constraints, And The. The Oblivion Trap (Part II): Western Inertia And Geopolitical Jolt. KASHMIR: The History India & Pakistan Tell Differently Dr Ishtiaq Ahmed. How Khojas, Bohras & Memons Built India's Economy Danish Khan. India's Indus Strategy & War Crime EXPLAINED Dr. Hassan Abbas.

Why India Is Furious Over Pakistan's Indus Valley Civilization Claim. IMF Debt, IPPs, China-Pakistan Corridor Explained Khurram Husain. Beyond The American Umbrella: A New Strategic Triangle Takes Shape. The NAB Amendments Judgment And CJ Isa's Legacy. Mubarak Sani Case: What Has Changed? Can Olympic Records And Javelin Diplomacy Thaw The Ice Between India. Fact-Check: Is Punjab CM Maryam Nawaz Suffering From Throat Cancer? Protecting Those Who Protect Humanity: World Humanitarian Day And. Washington Owes Pakistan More Than A Counter Terrorism Dialogue. Pakistan's Governance Challenges: From Potential To Progress. Pakistan's Missing Link In FDI: Engaging The Private Sector.

Every City Cutting Down Its Own Name. Climate-Smart Agriculture As Pakistan's New Social Contract With Nature. Broad Peak's Warning: The UN, UNDP, And The Future Of Glacial.

Taken together, the developments around pakistan Caught Between Washington And The Widening War point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.