Pakistan faces energy crunch as Strait of Hormuz crisis disrupts LNG supply, report finds

For context, the report, published in August, discovered that Pakistan experienced sharp declines in LNG imports during the crisis, with the country recording a drop of between 0.8 billion and 1.5 billion cubic meters in April 2026 compared with the same month.

Key points

• The report documented how Qatar bore the brunt of the disruption, with LNG exports falling 91% in May 2026 compared with May 2025.
• The report emphasized that the 2022-2026 geopolitical shocks have not weakened the global gas system but have accelerated diversification throughout supply, infrastructure and procurement.
• As the report notes, the crisis has additionally demonstrated the global natural gas system's greater resilience compared with the 2022 energy crisis.
• The outlook for Pakistan and other affected nations remains highly contingent on the progress of resolution to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
• As the report notes, asian importers have borne the heaviest impact, accounting for more than 80% of the import shortfall.

Global natural gas demand is projected to decline for the first time since 2022 as the Strait of Hormuz crisis has constrained approximately 20% of global LNG supply, equivalent to regarding 3% of total natural gas supply, the report stated. The conflict, which broke out in late February, has driven a sharp contraction in global trade, with LNG trade falling 4% between January and June 2026 compared with the same period last year.

As the report notes, asian importers have borne the heaviest impact, accounting for more than 80% of the import shortfall. Price-sensitive markets such as Pakistan, along with other emerging Asian economies and African nations, have been most acutely affected since the crisis began.

For context, the report documented how Qatar bore the brunt of the disruption, with LNG exports falling 91% in May 2026 compared with May 2025. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on supplies through mid-June after Iranian missile strikes on the Ras Laffan liquefaction plant. It damaged LNG Trains 4 and 6 and forced a broader halt to upstream natural gas production.

As the report notes, the crisis has additionally demonstrated the global natural gas system's greater resilience compared with the 2022 energy crisis. The benchmark Dutch TTF cost surged to above US$20 per million British thermal units in March 2026 but remained well below the 2022 peak above US$70 per million British thermal units. This resilience was underpinned by diversified supply, extra liquefaction capacity and storage availability that provided markets with greater optionality.

In practice, the United States played a significant role in the supply response, with US LNG accounting for more than half of European imports in 2025 and US terminals initially pushing to 119% utilization in March to maximize exported volumes in the high-price environment. According to the report, golden Pass LNG exported its first cargo on April 23, 2026, providing a means for QatarEnergy to meet some of its contractual commitments despite the disruption.

Looking ahead, the report cautioned that resilience depends on continued investment. If demand follows recent historical trends, global gas demand could reach around 4, 516 to 4, 575 billion cubic meters by 2030, compared with regarding 3, 670 billion cubic meters from sanctioned supply, implying a potential supply gap of 846 to 905 billion cubic meters.

Notably, the report emphasized that the 2022-2026 geopolitical shocks have not weakened the global gas system but have accelerated diversification throughout supply, infrastructure and procurement. Nevertheless, it observed that as future LNG supply expansion becomes more concentrated around the United States, a new concentration risk could emerge for importing countries.

Meanwhile, the outlook for Pakistan and other affected nations remains highly contingent on the progress of resolution to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. A memorandum of understanding was signed between the United States and Iran on June 17, but vessel transit through the Strait remains contested, with shipping activity stalling temporarily after a strike on the Al Rekayyat LNG carrier on July 7. Though it observed that a materially slower or faster restart would shift the extent of the decline, the report assumes a gradual reopening of the Strait from the third quarter of 2026 with a normalization of flows by the fourth quarter.

Taken together, the developments around pakistan faces energy crunch as Strait of Hormuz crisis disrupts LNG supply, point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.