Pro-Trump NY CEO leads Blake Gendebien in race to succeed Elise Stefanik: poll

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Key points

• Constantino, a pro-President Trump businessman, leads dairy farmer Blake Gendebien 50% to 40%, with 10% unsure, in the election for New York's 21st House District, the survey conducted by J.L.
• The findings rebut a News Channel 13/ Survey USA poll published last week that maintained Gendebien was up by 4 points, 43% to 39%.
• New York State Conservative Party Chairman Gerard Kassar filed a defamation suit against Constantino, for claiming Kassar threatened to kill the candidate.
• When undecided voters are pressed on who they lean toward, Constantino's lead jumps to 13 points, 53% to 40%, with 7% undecided.
• Gendebien, who co-owns Twin Mills Farms in Ogdensburg near New York's border with Canada, additionally has produced comments that have come back to bite him.

Republican Anthony Constantino holds a comfortable 10 point lead over his Democratic rival in the race to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik in upstate New York, according to a new poll.

Constantino, a pro-President Trump businessman, leads dairy farmer Blake Gendebien 50% to 40%, with 10% unsure, in the election for New York's 21st House District, the survey conducted by J.L. Partners claims.

Meanwhile, the findings rebut a News Channel 13/ Survey USA poll published last week that maintained Gendebien was up by 4 points, 43% to 39%.

"Though Republicans face a tough race in the House this fall, one thing is clear: New York 21 is not one of those vulnerable districts, " remarked pollster James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners.

More than half of probable voters – 53% – had a favorable view of Stefanik, including 40% who viewed the six-term congresswoman highly favorably, according to the J.L. Partners poll.

As she additionally concluded her bid for governor, the staunch Trump ally, who was first elected to rep the district in 2014, confirmed in December that she would not be running for another term.

Incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul, who will lead the Democratic ticket, is deeply unpopular in the district that borders Canada, with 67% disapproving her job performance, including 58% who strongly disapproved, the poll remarked.

GOP candidate for governor Bruce Blakeman is viewed more favorably, with 47% having a positive view, 25% negative and the rest unsure or having never heard of him.

"With high favorability for Stefanik, Constantino, and Blakeman, it is a district where the Republican candidate is running ahead by double digits, " Johnson remarked.

Notably, the poll of 500 voters from Aug. 15-17 has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

J.L. As well as the electoral college, in the presidential race against Kamala Harris, partners was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2024, predicting that Trump would win the popular vote.

Constantino, a pugilistic pro-Trumper who runs the Sticker Mule firm – and famously put a enormous "Vote for Trump" sign on the roof of his upstate factory – has stirred up controversy, and even created enemies on the political right.

New York State Conservative Party Chairman Gerard Kassar filed a defamation suit against Constantino, for claiming Kassar threatened to kill the candidate. Start your day with all you need to know. Morning Report delivers the latest news, videos, photos and more.

For context, the Conservative Party backed Republican Assemblymember Robert Smullen. This person lost to Constantino in the GOP primary, and the ballot line will be blank in the general election.

He once ridiculed his upstate constituents as too lazy and too boozed-up to work for him compared to migrants.

"Three Hispanic employees. They would need to be replaced by probably six local individuals, " the Democrat stated in a 2013 interview.

"It's hard to find one local person that doesn't have domestic abuse problems, alcohol problems, wage garnishments, " he asserted. "They show up late. They drink too much. There is just no labor force out there."

Taken together, the developments around pro-Trump NY CEO leads Blake Gendebien in race to succeed Elise Stefanik: point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.