Rosenberg: Russia's elections will have few surprises, but for the Kremlin they matter

BySteve Rosenberg Russia editor, Reporting fromMoscow and Dmitrov.

Key points

• Alexei Navalny was Russia's most prominent opposition leader and Kremlin critic who died in prison in 2024.
• "Good evening and welcome to tonight's campaign speeches by candidates for Duma Electoral District 158, " remarked the anchor on state TV.
• For the Kremlin, the election of 450 deputies to the lower house of parliament, the Duma, is significant.
• This weekend's election is due to deliver another parliament dominated by the party of power, United Russia, and a house of MPs fiercely loyal to Vladimir Putin.
• The system of power in Russia is often referred to as "managed democracy" (where the Kremlin does the managing).

Meanwhile, the system of power in Russia is often referred to as "managed democracy" (where the Kremlin does the managing). That means massive powers for the president and few political surprises.

This weekend's election is due to deliver another parliament dominated by the party of power, United Russia, and a house of MPs fiercely loyal to Vladimir Putin. Critics dismiss the vote as neither free nor fair. But the Kremlin doesn't care what the critics say.

"We have our own political system, our own political process, " Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained lately.

That means no curveballs for the Kremlin. No surprises. So no story?

For the Kremlin, the election of 450 deputies to the lower house of parliament, the Duma, is significant. This is the first parliamentary election here since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

As well as to promote the political careers of soldiers back from Ukraine: office-holders say almost two hundred war veterans are taking part in the election, the Kremlin will employ it to claim that most Russians back the president and the war.

As for the election campaign, that has provided a window on Russian society four-and-a-half years into the war. I remarked no surprises. But there have been some.

Notably, the studio director cut to a wide shot revealing six empty lecterns.

"The candidates haven't turned up, " admitted the host. "So, it's goodbye from me."

In another TV debate (where the politicians were present) one crooning candidate sang his pitch. The Communist Party, onwards we go! We're with the people, don't you know? More X Factor than exit poll.

Yet a musical manifesto is strangely appropriate. In the previous Duma, everyone seemed to be singing from the same hymn sheet. At the final session of parliament in July, MPs stood and applauded as the speaker of the house chanted repeatedly. "Russia, Putin, Victory! Russia, Putin, Victory!"

It was a signal that all MPs in parliament should back President Putin and the war.

"All parties in the Duma, every single one, voted in favour of 170 laws to support the special military operation, " Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov informed me with obvious pride concerning the last parliament. "In that sense there is 100% agreement in the Duma."

I caught up with Zyuganov on the campaign trail outside Moscow at a bread and biscuit factory. As I watched rows of identical-looking loaves speeding along the conveyer I thought regarding Russia's parliament. It's not that all parties in the Duma are identical: some are more nationalist, others – like Zyuganov's party – more left-wing.

But when it comes to backing the Kremlin's legislative initiatives and supporting the "special military operation" they vote the same way. Such "systemic" parties are vital cogs in Russia's Kremlin-centric political machine. And if a party doesn't backing the war?

One such party – Yabloko – is calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Back in July it was the only anti-war party in Russia to be registered for the election. Twelve days afterwards, though, the Supreme Court removed it from the ballot. That was widely interpreted as a sign of Kremlin concern that anti-war messaging could strike a chord with Russian voters.

Despite Yabloko's exclusion from the party list, some of its candidates are still running in individual constituency races. Though in recent weeks growing numbers of Yabloko candidates have been detained by police, prosecuted for various offences and barred from the election.

"The police are carrying out a political order. That's no secret, " Yabloko candidate Grigory Grishin tells me.

This way, the authorities are setting the boundaries within which they believe the elections should take place.

"It is well known that the demand for an end to the bloodshed in this conflict with Ukraine is particularly popular. In my opinion, most individuals in Russia now want peace and Yabloko assisted individuals express this. That's why it's been excluded from the party lists, and why individual candidates are being barred."

For now, Grigory remains a candidate. But the police lately came to his flat.

"Three policemen in civilian clothes asked me to accompany them to the station. It I did. The police remarked I had posted what they maintained was an extremist symbol: the word 'Navalny' and that, by doing so, I had propagandised extremism via my Telegram channel."

Alexei Navalny was Russia's most prominent opposition leader and Kremlin critic who died in prison in 2024. He'd been convicted on a number of charges, including extremism.

Notably, the Russian authorities insist that the Duma elections are transparent and fair. Critics of the vote point to opposition politicians who have been forced into exile or put in prison. Last year one of the leaders of a prominent independent election monitoring group in Russia was jailed for five years. Grigory Melkonyants was convicted on charges of working with an "undesirable organisation". His election monitoring group, Golos, has shut down.

Fifty miles from Moscow, in the town of Dmitrov, I see little sign of an election.

In the town centre there's a memorial to "Heroes of the special military operation": local individuals killed fighting in Ukraine. The war is front and centre of people's minds here.

"We feel it, " notes Olga, whose son-in-law is a soldier in the "special operation". "Since of the residents who've gone to fight and the families left behind with sons, husbands, children and grandchildren there. But these elections can't influence what will happen."

"I'd like us to live in a peaceful country, with no war, " Polina tells me, "So that you don't have to worry that a drone will fall down in front of you."

Russians have other reservations, too. While economic pressures are increasing, ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have sparked widespread fuel shortages.

"What worries me, " notes a barber called Ivan, "is that no matter how much you earn it's not enough. Rates are rising faster than wages. I speak to lots of individuals in my job. I know how hard-up they are." Expectations are low that this election will change much.

Western elections and elections in Russia are completely different things, Grishin explains. Elections in the West are a way of forming a administration. It is replaced afterwards if voters aren't satisfied.

"Elections in Russia never bring a change in administration. At best, they're a way of influencing it, of sending a signal. But power in Russia never changed since of an election. That's how Russia is."

For now, rosenberg: Russia' s elections will have few surprises, but for the Kremlin they remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.