Rosenberg: US diplomatic push offers little hope for imminent Ukraine peace

BySteve Rosenberg Russia Editor, Reporting fromMoscow.

Key points

• "Good and constructive" is how Norway's prime minister described Tuesday's discussions between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, US President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and European representatives.
• According to Ushakov, steve Witkoff had informed President Putin regarding the discussions in Oslo and (as Witkoff viewed them) "new approaches from the Europeans and Kyiv".
• But in China next month a session between Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping may well take place on the fringes of the Apec summit.
• In recent days Donald Trump has paused some sanctions on Moscow, has agreed to purchase Russian diesel and expressed biting criticism of President Zelensky.
• "Right now Trump is the only leader in the Western world who is doing something for peace, " Russian MP and TV anchor Evgeny Popov notes.

After two days of diplomacy – in Norway's capital and Russia's St Petersburg – is the war in Ukraine any closer to ending?

In Oslo, the idea of a trilateral session at leaders' level was floated. The hope was that Steve Witkoff's trip to Russia would pave the way for President Vladimir Putin, Zelensky and Trump to meet and agree an end to the fighting.

But Putin has shown little desire to share a table with Zelensky – unless that table is in Moscow.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin notes it may be willing to resume trilateral negotiations next month in Abu Dhabi, but only at the technical level.

Though he asserted "President Trump remains committed to seeing this war end.", in a post on X, Steve Witkoff himself conceded that "there is still important work to do".

Russia notes it is ready to resume negotiations with Ukraine and US to end war. Trump and Zelensky at loggerheads despite new optimism.

US citizen Stephen Hubbard freed by Russia as Trump envoy meets Putin.

For me, the most telling statement of the day was from Vladimir Putin's foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov. He took part in the St Petersburg discussions.

According to Ushakov, steve Witkoff had informed President Putin regarding the discussions in Oslo and (as Witkoff viewed them) "new approaches from the Europeans and Kyiv". The Kremlin adviser was clearly unimpressed by what he heard.

"In terms of resolving the Ukraine crisis, there wasn't much there that was useful, " commented Ushakov. Afterwards Russian state TV asked him concerning the prospects for peace.

"I don't know how close we are getting, " Yuri Ushakov remarked, "but things are moving in that direction."

It seems that President Putin doesn't feel under pressure right now to end the war. He knows that Ukraine's air defences are under severe strain.

He knows that winter is coming and may well view the cold weather as an opportunity to pound Ukraine into submission.

He knows, too, that there is a US president in the White House who clearly wants a bigger, better, more profitable relationship with Moscow.

That suits Russia just fine. It eases the pressure on the Kremlin leader.

"Doing something for peace, but a peace on your terms?" I respond. "Is that what you want?" A Putin-Zelensky-Trump trilateral may not be imminent.

Some commentators here are already dubbing it "The New Yalta" – a reference to the Yalta Conference of 1945, where Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt met to plan the political and territorial reorganisation of post-war Europe.

"Russia, China and the United States are the only superpowers right now in the world, " Evgeny Popov notes. "Of course, it will be good for the entire world if our leaders meet in China."

After almost five years of war, that would put Vladimir Putin exactly where he wants to be – at the top table of global politics.

For now, rosenberg: US diplomatic push offers little hope for imminent Ukraine peace remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.