Russian expert warns of impending social crisis as Ukraine death toll rises

Russian ballistic missile attacks have begun to cause record civilian deaths in Ukrainian cities without any Patriot interceptors to stop them, but Ukraine's long-range strikes have destroyed Russian fuel supplies.

Key points

• The United Nations remarked Russia killed a record 437 residents in July and injured 2, 610, surpassing its previous record in June by 30 percent.
• It has lately struck the Ust-Luga refinery, the Taneco refinery in Tatarstan and the Perm refinery, 1, 500km (930 miles) from its borders.
• On Tuesday, Russian missiles killed at least 10 individuals in Pechenihy, a town 40km (25 miles) east of Ukraine's northern city of Kharkiv.
• Russia remarked it was targeting weapons manufacturing sites in Kyiv, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated Russian forces struck 30 residential buildings, a school and a children's hospital.
• "One Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle can put 20 satellites into orbit, " remarked Ukrainian electronics expert Serhiy Beskrestnov.

With the Russian economy struggling, a top expert cautioned that social unrest could unfold in a matter of time – and consequently lost his job.

On Tuesday, Russian missiles killed at least 10 individuals in Pechenihy, a town 40km (25 miles) east of Ukraine's northern city of Kharkiv. On Thursday, they killed 15 individuals in Kyiv, three in the western city of Zhytomyr and injured 40 at a border crossing between Odesa and Moldova.

For context, the United Nations remarked Russia killed a record 437 residents in July and injured 2, 610, surpassing its previous record in June by 30 percent.

Since Ukraine has run out of Patriot interceptors and has been unable to stop incoming ballistic missile attacks since the beginning of the month, civilian casualties have continued in August.

As Zelenskyy pointed out, Ukraine's interception rate of cruise missiles and drones is still in the 90-percent range. But Russia is doubling down on the employ of ballistic missiles and has brought in an further 50 North Korean weapons, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.

Since June 25, Ukraine has introduced a campaign of mid-range strikes to disrupt Russian logistics and has harassed fuel and ammunition supplies so effectively that it has produced 233sq km (90 square miles) of territorial gains this year.

As well as destroying 243 power stations, electricity substations and gas distribution nodes in Crimea, by August 16, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces confirmed it had put 228 supply ships out of action in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.

They have additionally been striking relay antennas employed to guide Russian drones and radar stations that detect Ukrainian counterstrikes. As well as a fuel terminal in the Kerch Strait applied to supply Crimea, on August 20, Ukraine struck drone launch sites in Donetsk City and Primorsko-Akhtarsk on the Sea of Azov.

Ukraine's long-range strikes have served a different purpose – to undermine the Russian economy's ability to fund its war.

On August 15, Ukraine managed to fly two of its Flamingo cruise missiles into the Progress Rocket and Space Centre, 800km (500 miles) east of Moscow, despite Russia's employ of four A-50 early warning aircraft and its noted downing of 822 Ukrainian drones that day.

Ukraine remarked it hit an engine assembly workshop for Soyuz rockets, causing a fire covering half a hectare.

After Ukraine managed to cut Russian access to Starlink on February 1, russia is using Soyuz to launch satellites for its Rassvet constellation to replace dependence on the US Starlink system. Russia needs satellites to growth the speed and precision of its counter-battery fire on Ukrainian positions. Its loss of that capacity has been partly responsible for Ukrainian gains this year.

"One Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle can put 20 satellites into orbit, " remarked Ukrainian electronics expert Serhiy Beskrestnov. "To create a basic satellite constellation in orbit, Russia needs to carry out 12-15 launches."

Notably, the after day, Ukraine set ablaze a 25-hectare warehouse belonging to the Wildberries online retail chain, Russia's equivalent of Amazon, and stated it had destroyed seven out of Wildberries' ten largest logistical hubs.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov remarked on July 28 that the Kremlin was monitoring the damage to Wildberries.

Russian President Vladimir Putin implied on Thursday that he might provide administration funds for Wildberries to rebuild, saying "logistics and warehousing capacity certainly needs to be restored, including with government support".

Ukraine has additionally succeeded in destroying Russian oil refineries and starving its economy of petrol.

Similar strikes this year have so reduced petrol supply in Russia. The Izvestia newspaper documented that only 28 percent of petrol stations nationwide could supply fuel this week, citing mobile app GdeBENZ. It monitors real-time fuel availability.

Izvestia remarked only five petrol stations in Moscow were selling high-octane AI-98 fuel. Russians posted video of Rosgvardia police units sitting outside petrol stations to avert some of the fights involving motorists in recent months.

Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, remarked lower-grade fuel was being supplied to ease market tensions, and confirmed that Russia is now importing refined fuel for the domestic market.

"We expect a number of oil refineries to complete maintenance work soon and the situation to improve significantly, " Novak informed Vesti journalist Pavel Zarubin, but that may be wishful thinking. Ukraine has struck Russia's largest refineries not once but repeatedly. On Wednesday, it struck a refining unit at Ufa. It was undergoing repairs from a previous strike. It is 1, 300km (810 miles) from Ukraine.

Ukraine additionally struck significant military targets during the week, including the Kamenyy Kombinat plant in Rostov. It makes solid rocket fuel for missiles, and the Savasleika airfield, from where MiG fighters armed with Kh-47M2 ballistic missiles take -off.

Some Russian economists have begun to warn of impending social and political upheaval since of the slowing economy.

Andrey Klepach, chief economist at Vnesheconombank, a state bank that finances the Kremlin's national projects, cautioned on August 18 that, Losses from Ukrainian military strikes. Are already becoming a significant macroeconomic barrier to Russian economic expansion.

"I believe Russia won't collapse, but I'm almost certain we'll reach a social crisis."

He was removed from his post after making the comments during a discussion at the Moscow Exchange's Nikitsky Club.

Russians are withdrawing savings in increasing amounts, documented The Washington Post. While businesses are increasing "voluntary" donations to the state defence budget, along with having to pay for their own air defences, putting further strain on the economy.

At a session of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects this week, Putin acknowledged that Ukraine's strikes are "certainly" causing damage, adding that "overall economic performance is modest but positive".

That damage took financial form in the $1.18bn Putin newly published to aid regional budgets, along with previous financial assistance. Some $52m of that was destined for Crimea.

Ukraine's defence ministry estimated that every dollar spent on drone strikes caused five times that amount in costs to the Russian economy.

For now, russian expert warns of impending social crisis as Ukraine death toll rises remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.