Shock Polls Show Republicans Behind in America's Reddest States

Iran's Defeat by Trump in 3 Devastating Charts-and What Happens Next.

Key points

• In Arkansas, a Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll discovered Democratic Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner leading Republican Senator Tom Cotton by 47.4 percent to 44 percent.
• Republican senators are trailing challengers in two new polls from Arkansas and Idaho, two of President Donald Trump's strongest states in the 2024 presidential election.
• It was the largest Republican presidential margin in Arkansas since Richard Nixon's landslide victory in 1972.
• Trump's 10 highest state vote shares in 2024, according to Associated Press figures, were.
• He won 66.9 percent there compared to Harris' by 30.4 points.

Republican senators are trailing challengers in two new polls from Arkansas and Idaho, two of President Donald Trump's strongest states in the 2024 presidential election. In Arkansas, a Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll discovered Democratic Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner leading Republican Senator Tom Cotton by 47.4 percent to 44 percent. While 5.6 percent were undecided, libertarian Jeff Wadlin received 3 percent. Shoffner's 3.4-point advantage falls within the poll's 4.7-point margin of error, nevertheless. Notably, the survey of 1, 217 probable voters was conducted by text message from August 11 to 12. The result is particularly striking since Trump carried Arkansas by 30.6 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, winning 64.2 percent of the vote to then-Vice President Kamala Harris' 33.6 percent. It was the largest Republican presidential margin in Arkansas since Richard Nixon's landslide victory in 1972. A second poll produced an equally surprising result in Idaho. Independent Senate candidate Todd Achilles led three-term Republican Senator Jim Risch by 38 percent to 33 percent in a head-to-head matchup, according to figures published Wednesday by the Bullfinch Group. A substantial 29 percent were unsure. Idaho was one of Trump's strongest states in 2024. He won 66.9 percent there compared to Harris' by 30.4 points. Only Wyoming, West Virginia and North Dakota offered Trump a higher share of their votes, with North Dakota narrowly exceeding Idaho at 67 percent. Trump's 10 highest state vote shares in 2024, according to Associated Press figures, were: This is a developing story and will be updated shortly.

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In Arkansas, a Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll discovered Democratic Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner leading Republican Senator Tom Cotton by 47.4 percent to 44 percent. While 5.6 percent were undecided, libertarian Jeff Wadlin received 3 percent.

Shoffner's 3.4-point advantage falls within the poll's 4.7-point margin of error, nevertheless. The survey of 1, 217 probable voters was conducted by text message from August 11 to 12.

For context, the result is particularly striking since Trump carried Arkansas by 30.6 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, winning 64.2 percent of the vote to then-Vice President Kamala Harris' 33.6 percent. It was the largest Republican presidential margin in Arkansas since Richard Nixon's landslide victory in 1972.

In practice, a second poll produced an equally surprising result in Idaho. Independent Senate candidate Todd Achilles led three-term Republican Senator Jim Risch by 38 percent to 33 percent in a head-to-head matchup, according to figures published Wednesday by the Bullfinch Group. A substantial 29 percent were unsure.

Idaho was one of Trump's strongest states in 2024. He won 66.9 percent there compared to Harris' by 30.4 points. Only Wyoming, West Virginia and North Dakota offered Trump a higher share of their votes, with North Dakota narrowly exceeding Idaho at 67 percent.

Trump's 10 highest state vote shares in 2024, according to Associated Press figures, were. This is a developing story and will be updated shortly.

For now, shock Polls Show Republicans Behind in America& #039; s Reddest States remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.