Six months of war between Iran, US leave Arab states facing tough questions

Analysts broadly agree the United States and Israel's war on Iran will not see regime collapse in Tehran or a definite victory for Washington, but rather a dragged-out affair of stagnation and attrition.

Key points

• Existing tensions, such as those between the Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia in Yemen, look only set to growth as the war drags on.
• "There is no chance of the government in Tehran falling in the next six months, " Hellyer informed Al Jazeera.
• Shipments of oil, derivative products and liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been repeatedly and severely disrupted since the US and Israel introduced their attacks on Iran in February.
• Although the cost of oil has risen, so has inflation, exacerbating the Gulf states' difficulties is that.
• The hope among the US leadership at the start of the war.

Meanwhile, the hope among the US leadership at the start of the war. It began after surprise Israeli and US attacks on February 28, was that mounting economic and military pressure on Iran would force a structural shift in Tehran. Six months on, it is clear this vision will not come regarding, and instead numerous are preparing for a protracted war and managed fallout.

Oil-dependent economies are still absorbing supply shocks after traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a trickle of pre-war levels after Iran's attacks on shipping and a US blockade on Iranian ports.

Meanwhile, the US military is still entrenched in a region that remains its most militarised in years. Although the war's intensity has lessened since a memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed by Washington and Tehran in June, there is no sign it will conclude, leading to continued uncertainty regarding the future.

Existing tensions, such as those between the Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia in Yemen, look only set to growth as the war drags on. The influence of rival powers, such as those of India and China, remains stalled rather than halted, with Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative having already established itself within the Middle East and North Africa. All in all, the region remains in flux where formal alliances with outside powers no longer guarantee safety.

In practice, the defence agreement between Turkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia lately signed in Mecca will probable be the first of plenty of such military pacts agreed in the region.

"The war has just accelerated trends, but hasn't really began anything that wasn't already under way. The Gulf countries were already diversifying their economies, " Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, informed Al Jazeera. "Many were already looking at broadening their defence partnerships beyond existing US security guarantees, as well as increasing their own defence capability."

Israel, for its part, is still pursuing its regional project of "paramountcy", HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute remarked, despite its failure to bring Iran to its knees this year.

"There is no chance of the government in Tehran falling in the next six months, " Hellyer informed Al Jazeera. "If everything were to theoretically stay the same. With just rose economic pressure, that could eventually cause a ripple effect that could lead to state collapse in Iran. But we're talking years, not months, and everything is not probable to stay the same."

For context, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on regional cities have hindered Gulf states' intends to apply oil revenues as an engine to diversify their economies and build on their reputations as a safe haven to encourage investors.

Transit through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. It saw attacks on shipping by the Houthis during Israel's genocidal war on Gaza, became even more hazardous in July, when the Iran-allied Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia.

"The price of oil has increased broadly in line with the Gulf states' difficulties in exporting it, " John Sfakianakis, chief economist at the Gulf Research Center, informed Al Jazeera. "Is this going to go for six months? Is it going to go on for longer?"

Although the cost of oil has risen, so has inflation, exacerbating the Gulf states' difficulties is that. Along with the economic difficulties the war has created, there is additionally growing pressure for Gulf states to invest more in defence.

For now, most of the states caught in the middle will look at ways of living with the turmoil and managing the consequences.

In short, six months of war between Iran, US leave Arab states facing tough is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.