South Africa’s ANC on track for new lows in local polls

South Africa's early municipal election results have shown the African National Congress (ANC) with a sharply reduced vote share, weakening the long-dominant party's control of key cities such as Johannesburg.

Key points

• From almost 70 percent of the national vote in 2004, the ANC fell below 50 percent for the first time in the 2021 municipal elections, winning 46 percent.
• But projections by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), a state-funded research body, put its backing there at 32 percent.
• Former President Jacob Zuma's breakaway opposition uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party was in third place with 8.5 percent, below levels suggested by opinion polls.
• At the 2024 national elections, it managed just more than 40 percent and was forced to accept a unity administration with nine other parties, including the DA.
• The results of this week's local ballot will offer a key measure of voters' sentiment ahead of the 2029 general election.

After more than 60 percent of the votes had been counted in this week's municipal elections, data from the election commission demonstrated late on Thursday, the ANC was on regarding 32 percent of the vote, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) in second place at 25 percent.

Meanwhile, former President Jacob Zuma's breakaway opposition uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party was in third place with 8.5 percent, below levels suggested by opinion polls.

Regarding 15.9 million of 29.2 million registered voters cast ballots, the electoral commission stated, putting turnout at an estimated 54.5 percent, up from 46 percent in the pandemic-hit 2021 local elections.

Notably, the ANC, which has been South Africa's largest party since it led the country out of apartheid in 1994, has tended to do worse in municipal elections than nationally and has acknowledged its failures in local governance.

For context, the party, now led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, has borne the brunt of criticism regarding years of municipal mismanagement that have left South Africans grappling with failing water supplies, persistent power cuts and crumbling public services.

While splinter parties have eaten away at its backing base, it has additionally faced corruption allegations.

In practice, the results of this week's local ballot will offer a key measure of voters' sentiment ahead of the 2029 general election.

Control of the country's eight major metropolitan municipalities is up for grabs, alongside dozens of district and local councils.

Meanwhile, the MK party had been tipped as one of the few parties capable of securing an outright majority in the eastern port city of Durban.

For context, the DA, meanwhile, was forecast to retain control of tourist magnet Cape Town with 56 percent of the vote, with its leader, Geordin Hill-Lewis, already declaring victory.

After running a spirited campaign spearheaded by its former leader, Helen Zille, 75, according to CSIR projections, the party was additionally leading with 34 percent in Johannesburg, the country's financial capital.

With outright majorities far from assured in a number of major cities, the results could usher in another round of complex coalition negotiations, with parties bargaining to assemble the alliances needed to govern. Final results are projected on Sunday.

Taken together, the developments around south Africa's ANC on track for new lows in local polls point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.