Super El Niño: Best and Worst US States To Travel to This Winter

For context, a rapidly strengthening El Niño is raising the possibility of one of the strongest such climate events on record, potentially reshaping winter weather patterns throughout the United States and around the globe.

Key points

• The phenomenon often shifts rainfall patterns throughout South America, Asia, Australia and parts of Africa.
• Pastelok informed Newsweek that California, Arizona and surrounding areas could see frequent, significant rain throughout the winter as El Niño strengthens the southern storm track.
• Countries That Could Be Disrupted by El Niño This Season.
• El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
• Nevertheless, skiers heading to the Intermountain West might be in luck, Pastelok stated.

By Anna Skinner Associate News Editor. Newsweek is a Trust Project member.

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Forecasters have been closely tracking El Niño's development for months using a network of ocean buoys, satellites, atmospheric observations and computer climate models that monitor sea-surface temperatures and shifting wind patterns throughout the tropical Pacific. Scientists say the warming is projected to continue into the fall and winter, raising the likelihood of significant impacts on weather patterns worldwide and increasing confidence that this year's El Niño could rank among the strongest observed in modern records.

While the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially classifies the current event as a "very strong" El Niño rather than a "super" El Niño, many meteorologists use the informal "super" label for exceptionally intense episodes that exceed certain ocean temperature thresholds.

For winter travelers, that distinction may matter less than the weather impacts that could follow, ranging from flooding rains in parts of California and the Southwest to severe storms in portions of the Southeast. What Is a Super El Niño?

El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific rise above average. The warming can alter atmospheric circulation patterns worldwide, influencing rainfall, temperatures, storms and droughts.

NOAA does not officially recognize a "super" El Niño category. Instead, the agency classifies events as subdued, moderate, robust or particularly robust based on ocean temperature anomalies. Meteorologists and climate researchers, nevertheless, often apply the term "super El Niño" informally to describe exceptionally powerful events such as those seen in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.

For context, the current El Niño is already among the strongest observed for this time of year. NOAA notes there is more than a 90 percent chance it will reach "very strong" status this fall and winter, and a 69 percent chance it could exceed the strength of all El Niño events on record dating back to 1950. Why Is This Year's El Niño Intense?

One reason forecasters are paying close attention is the extraordinary warmth already present in the Pacific Ocean. NOAA notes the ocean-atmosphere system increasingly reflects a strengthening El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2 degrees Celsius in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific.

Scientists have additionally pointed to record global ocean temperatures and a substantial reservoir of unusually warm subsurface water that has accumulated beneath the Pacific. That heat has supported fuel the rapid intensification seen during 2026.

Still, NOAA cautions that a stronger El Niño does not automatically guarantee stronger impacts everywhere. Best and Worst States to Travel to This Winter.

When warming Pacific Ocean waters have fully developed and commence to more strongly influence global atmospheric circulation and seasonal weather patterns, el Niño's strongest and most widespread effects are typically felt during the fall and winter months.

Although an official forecast for the coming season and how it will be influenced by the climate pattern has yet to be published, AccuWeather long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok informed Newsweek that some of the most challenging destinations for winter travelers during a traditional El Niño are Southern California and parts of the Southwest like Phoenix, Arizona.

"Those are not particularly good areas to go to and risk it from a traditional El Niño perspective, if this becomes one, " he remarked. "That area, I would try to avoid."

Pastelok informed Newsweek that California, Arizona and surrounding areas could see frequent, significant rain throughout the winter as El Niño strengthens the southern storm track. While extra precipitation could assist water supplies, it may additionally rise the risk of travel disruptions, flooding, and storm-related delays.

Northern states may additionally disappoint certain travelers, particularly those hoping for traditional winter recreation. El Niño winters often bring warmer-than-normal temperatures throughout parts of the northern United States. It can reduce snow and ice coverage. For visitors interested in activities such as ice fishing, conditions could be less reliable than usual.

Nevertheless, skiers heading to the Intermountain West might be in luck, Pastelok stated. While Denver is "on the edge" of traditional El Niño storm tracks, Pastelok remarked he thinks the Colorado city will see a "decent amount of snow" this year, welcome news considering last year's snow drought. As do the California Sierra Nevada, the Wasatch Mountains in Utah additionally "do very well in traditional El Niño" events, Pastelok stated.

Meanwhile, the Southeast presents a mixed picture. Pastelok remarked northern Florida and southern Georgia could see episodes of severe weather, including tornadoes. El Niño winters are often associated with rose severe weather risks throughout parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

"El Niños are tough for people trying to escape the cold and head south, " Pastelok remarked. "You can even get snow pretty far south."

Pastelok stressed such storms didn't occur often during the winter season, but one or two storms could bring snow to the interior Gulf states and the Southeast.

"You'll have to go pretty far south in the peninsula to escape some of the wet weather, " Pastelok remarked, adding that "pretty good weather" might be felt in places like Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Fort Myers, and the Keys. Countries That Could Be Disrupted by El Niño This Season. El Niño's reach extends far beyond the United States.

Notably, the phenomenon often shifts rainfall patterns throughout South America, Asia, Australia and parts of Africa. While areas prone to dry conditions may experience flooding, regions that normally receive abundant rain can face drought.

Indonesia and parts of Australia are among the countries that frequently experience drier-than-normal conditions during El Niño years, raising wildfire reservations and straining water supplies. Meanwhile, portions of western South America may see rose rainfall and flooding risks.

Past major El Niño events have been linked to crop disruptions, fisheries impacts, infrastructure damage and food security reservations in a number of regions worldwide. Since this year's event could reach historic intensity, meteorologists are closely monitoring potential effects.

As always, the exact impacts will depend on how El Niño evolves over the coming months. But with NOAA forecasting a greater than 90 percent chance of a particularly robust event and the possibility of record-breaking intensity, winter travelers may want to watch long-range forecasts before booking trips. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Kate Nalepinski and Sam Wilson.

For now, super El Niño: Best and Worst US States To Travel to This remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.