The beneficiaries of war

Khurram Abbas Published August 22, 2026 Updated August 22, 2026 08: 51am. Add Dawn as a trusted source.

Key points

• ExxonMobil's Q2 2026 net income reached $14.5bn, compared with $7.08bn in the corresponding period of 2025.
• Lockheed Martin documented earnings of $1.8 billion in the second quarter of 2026, compared with $342 million during the same period in 2025.
• Microsoft additionally secured a five-year Pentagon contract worth $9.69bn for Microsoft 365, cloud subscriptions and other services for the US military and intelligence community.
• The foremost beneficiary of the US-Iran conflict has been the defence industry.
• A number of sectors have emerged as unmistakable commercial winners in the US-Iran conflict.

WARS are generally assessed through a binary lens. Strategic analysts, policymakers and the media tend to focus on a simple question – who won and who lost? The recent US-Iran war has generated a similar debate. Has Washington been able to achieve its objectives? Has Iran successfully withstood American military pressure and preserved its capacity to resist?

But this binary framework overlooks another, often more consequential, dimension of modern warfare. Wars do not merely produce military winners and losers. They additionally redistribute wealth, accelerate technological change and create commercial opportunities for industries positioned to profit from insecurity. In the case of the US-Iran conflict, the most obvious beneficiaries may ultimately be neither Washington nor Tehran.

Meanwhile, the two capitals have both paid a substantial cost. They have expended military resources, suffered economic disruption and experienced varying degrees of tactical and strategic pain. The conflict may therefore produce no clear geopolitical victor. Yet a number of sectors have emerged as unmistakable commercial winners.

Meanwhile, the foremost beneficiary of the US-Iran conflict has been the defence industry. Modern wars consume extraordinary quantities of missiles, interceptors, drones, precision-guided munitions and other military equipment. Every missile fired has to be replaced. Every depleted stockpile creates new procurement requirements. Every perceived vulnerability generates pressure for extra defence spending. The financial results of major US defence firms illustrate this dynamic.

Notably, a number of sectors have emerged as unmistakable commercial winners in the US-Iran conflict.

Lockheed Martin documented earnings of $1.8 billion in the second quarter of 2026, compared with $342 million during the same period in 2025. While its backlog reached a record $230bn, its sales rose by 11 per cent to $20.1bn. Sales in its missiles and fire control segment rose by 19pc to $4.1bn. Similarly, RTX, the parent firm of Raytheon, noted Q2 2026 net income of $2.139bn, up from $1.657bn in the corresponding quarter of 2025. Raytheon sales rose by 18pc to $8.269bn, backed by demand for systems such as Patriot, Standard Missile and AMRAAM.

In practice, a prolonged conflict not only increases the immediate consumption of weapons but additionally generates a second wave of demand, ie, replenishment of stockpiles. The conflict between the US and Iran has resultantly become a multi-year procurement cycle for these firms. The longer the insecurity persists, the more governments feel compelled to order extra weapons, ammunition and defensive systems. For the military-industrial complex, geopolitical instability can translate into expanding order books.

Select firms in the energy sector have been another major beneficiary. The US-Iran war, combined with uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions to regional energy flows, created precisely the conditions in which sizeable oil businesses, refiners and commodity traders tend to thrive on higher rates, supply uncertainty and extreme market volatility. The figures are striking.

ExxonMobil's Q2 2026 net income reached $14.5bn, compared with $7.08bn in the corresponding period of 2025. It is an growth of almost 105 pc. While Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66 and Valero Energy additionally recorded major gains as higher energy rates and refining margins transformed geopolitical disruption into exceptional financial returns, similarly, Chevron's earnings rose dramatically.

In practice, the trend was not confined to the US. While British Petroleum noted $5.7bn, compared with $2.34bn during the corresponding period, shell documented Q2 2026 profits of $9.84bn, compared with $4.26bn in Q2 2025. TotalEnergies, Saudi Aramco, Glencore and Trafigura additionally benefited from the extraordinary volatility created by the conflict and the resulting disruption in energy markets.

For context, the point is not that every energy firm automatically benefits from every war. Conflict can additionally destroy infrastructure, disrupt production and create substantial risks. But the US-Iran war demonstrates how supply disruptions and uncertainty can produce extraordinary gains for firms capable of trading volatility, refining crude and exploiting higher costs. For plenty of firms, instability itself can become profitable.

In practice, the beneficiaries of modern conflict are no longer limited to firms manufacturing tanks and missiles. Warfare is increasingly dependent on artificial intelligence, cloud computing, satellite data, cybersecurity and real-time battlefield analysis. Palantir Technologies has emerged as one of the glaring examples of this transformation. In Q2 2026, the firm generated revenue of $1.94bn, representing 93pc year-on-year expansion. Revenue from the US administration reached $809m, an rise of 90pc.

Microsoft additionally secured a five-year Pentagon contract worth $9.69bn for Microsoft 365, cloud subscriptions and other services for the US military and intelligence community. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has been pushing AI firms to expand their capabilities into classified networks, creating new opportunities for firms capable of developing secure AI systems for military and intelligence purposes. The US-Iran war may therefore accelerate a structural transformation in the military marketplace.

Global shipping industry is another example of war-generated profits. Disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz forced vessels to alter routes and created enormous uncertainty in global shipping markets. The resulting growth in freight rates transformed tanker operations into a highly profitable business. Frontline and Scorpio Tankers are some prominent examples with record Q1 and Q2 earnings of 2026.

There are additionally less visible beneficiaries. Defence consultants, geopolitical risk firms, intelligence service providers, private security contractors and an expanding ecosystem of digital media personalities have all discovered that geopolitical crises generate unprecedented demand for their products, services and content.

Although, decisions on war and peace are determined by governments, it is equally tough to ignore the political economy associated with prolonged warfare. This raises an uncomfortable question: if war creates exponential profits for some industries, would they prefer the settlement of conflicts or their prolonged continuation?

Notably, the writer is a strategic analyst of international security. The views expressed are his own. X: @itskhurramabbas.

For now, the beneficiaries of war remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.