Time to prepare is ‘now:’ Catastrophic floods forecast in Hawaii from Nolo

Time to prepare is 'now: ' Catastrophic floods forecast in Hawaii from Nolo.

Key points

• 23, the center of Nolo was 310 miles south of South Point, Hawaii, and regarding 500 miles south-southeast of Honolulu.
• PT, the center of Odalys was regarding 1, 295 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula.
• Hurricane Polo intensified into a Category 5 hurricane with peak sustained winds of 180 mph and higher as it moves along just off the Mexican coast.
• Editor's note: Follow USA TODAY's live coverage of Nolo as it threatens Hawaii on Thursday, September 24.
• A flood watch is in effect for the Major Island, Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe from noon Sept.

Time to prepare is 'now: ' Catastrophic floods forecast in Hawaii from Nolo. Dinah Voyles Pulver, Doyle Rice USA TODAY. Hurricane Polo reaches Category 5 strength off Mexico coast.

Newly named Tropical Storm Nolo is raising concern in Hawaii for a "catastrophic" threat from yet another tropical cyclone, for the third time this year.

Heavy rain is forecast to return to the eastern Hawaiian Islands as Nolo formed to the south of the islands, bringing potentially "catastrophic flooding" to areas still recovering from Hurricane Lala flooding.

Nolo is forecast to reach hurricane strength afterwards on Thursday, Sept. 24. A hurricane watch has been issued for the entire Major Island, meaning that hurricane conditions are feasible within the watch area.

As of 11 a.m. HT (5 p.m. EDT) on Sept. 23, the center of Nolo was 310 miles south of South Point, Hawaii, and regarding 500 miles south-southeast of Honolulu. For context, the storm had sustained winds of 40 mph and was moving to the west-northwest at 6 mph. Time to prepare is 'now'.

"The time to prepare for significant heavy rain and flooding impacts on the Big Island is now, as heavy rain becomes more likely by Thursday and Friday, " the hurricane center remarked in an online bulletin on Sept. 23.

"Periods of heavy rain are likely to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the weekend, " according to the hurricane center. Sharp turn to the north projected.

For context, a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast afterwards on Thursday, Sept. As a hurricane, 24, taking the storm near the Major Island of Hawaii on Friday. Swells are projected to arrive Friday, Sept. 25, spreading west and building over the weekend, creating "life-threatening surf and rip current conditions."

Meanwhile, the center of the storm is forecast to be roughly 100 miles south-southeast of the Major Island late Friday night, with sustained winds of 110 mph, just below Category 3 hurricane strength, according to the hurricane center's forecast. Heavy rain in the forecast.

Heavy rain is forecast to start on Wednesday, Sept. 23, and continue through Sept. 26, the hurricane center remarked. "Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible from rainfall totals in excess of a foot, especially in areas of steep terrain."

According to AccuWeather, rainfall amounts over three days could reach 24 to 36 inches at higher elevations on the Major Island, with widespread rainfall totals over Hawaii and the eastern side of Maui. But the rainfall rate is projected to have more impact than the total rainfall, the weather service stated.

More: El Niño goes wild: Pacific Ocean under siege from tropical cyclones.

Meanwhile, the southeast Major Island "is vulnerable due to ongoing recovery from the flooding during (Hurricane) Lala, " stated John Bravender, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

Risks for wind and wave impacts are additionally forecast to rise regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity, and hurricane or tropical storm watches could be issued afterwards today.

"Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place, " the hurricane center cautioned. Flooding forecast for eastern Hawaiian Islands.

Meanwhile, a flood watch is in effect for the Major Island, Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe from noon Sept. 23 through the afternoon of Saturday, Sept. 26.

Heavy rain on the north side of the intensifying cyclone will develop on Wednesday, Sept. 23, over the Major Island, then spread westward to Maui. The weather service warns of potentially significant flooding, with landslides and feasible property damage.

"People should not focus solely on what category this storm becomes, " remarked AccuWeather expert meteorologist Nicholas Arman in an email to USA TODAY. "The greatest danger could be the amount of rain it unloads and how long that rain continues. If the storm slows or stalls close enough to the Major Island, we could be looking at catastrophic flooding and mudslides."

Hurricane Lala: Hawaii faces flooding and mudslide risks as Lala moves away. World championship canoe race canceled.

Organizers of the annual Na Wahine O Ke Kai, a world championship women's canoe race scheduled for Sunday, Sept. 27, have canceled the event. The Oahu Hawaiian Canoe Racing Association cited the projected rough conditions offshore. The race from Molokai to Oahu began in 1954 and has been canceled by extreme conditions twice before, in 1980 and 2015. El Niño a major player this season.

Weather troublemaker El Niño – a natural warming of Pacific Ocean water – continues to be a factor in the weather patterns over the Pacific this year. "El Niño is a major reason Hawaii has faced so many tropical threats this season, " Arman remarked. "It promotes warm water and changes wind patterns throughout the Pacific in ways that can produce the central Pacific more favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop and survive. We've seen the result this year with storm after storm tracking toward or near the islands."

Hurricane Polo menaces Mexico.

Elsewhere in the Pacific, a slightly weakened Hurricane Polo was drifting northward in the Pacific on the morning of Sept. 23, regarding 165 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, with peak sustained winds of 150 mph. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect along the country's southern coast.

For context, the hurricane is forecast to commence moving westward by Sept. 24, then turn northward by Sept. 26 and approach the Southern California Baja Peninsula. The official forecast calls for the center of the hurricane to be roughly 200 miles west of Cabo San Lucas on the morning of Sunday, Sept. As a hurricane, with peak sustained winds of 105 mph, 27. Hurricane Polo becomes a record breaker.

Polo rapidly intensified earlier in the week, becoming a Category 5 hurricane with 180 mph winds, increasing its wind speeds by 95 mph in less than 24 hours.

"The hurricane tore through records, strengthening from a disorganized tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane in a remarkable 42 hours, the fastest of any system on record in the western hemisphere, " remarked Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist with WPLG-TV in Miami. A low-pressure reading in the hurricane's eye on Sept. 22 created it the second most intense eastern Pacific hurricane ever recorded, Lowry stated. The most intense was 2015's Hurricane Patricia. Where is Hurricane Polo headed? See path tracker, spaghetti models. Odalys spins in the open Pacific. Hurricane Odalys has additionally joined the Pacific storm party this week.

As of 2 a.m. PT, the center of Odalys was regarding 1, 295 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula. It had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, the hurricane center remarked. It poses no threat to any land areas.

Odalys is forecast to hit peak intensity on the evening of Sept. 24, then weaken. As a tropical storm, to have some interaction with Hurricane Polo, the hurricane center remarked in a forecast discussion, the potential still exists for Odalys. The centers of the two storms are forecast to be roughly 600 miles apart on the morning of Sept. 27.

In the Atlantic basin, a low-pressure system redeveloped into Tropical Depression Fay, the hurricane center remarked Wednesday.

Some strengthening is feasible during the next couple of days, but gradual weakening should occur thereafter, the NHC stated.

Along with Fay, forecasters are watching an area of disturbed weather near Africa for feasible development into another tropical depression, the hurricane center stated.

Nevertheless, due to robust upper-level winds that will act to shear off the tops of the storms, neither storm is forecast to reach hurricane strength. It will continue the trend that's prevented hurricanes from forming in the Atlantic this season. Polo pushes monsoonal rains into New Mexico.

In practice, a solid band of monsoonal moisture pushing ahead of Hurricane Polo is soaking much of New Mexico.

Overnight on Sept. 22, heavy rain sent the Rio Hondo River up more than six feet before it crested, according to the weather service office in Albuquerque. The rain is projected to continue, contributing to the risk of flash flooding through Thursday, particularly in eastern New Mexico. This story has been updated to add new information.

Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver are national correspondents for USA TODAY with a focus on weather and climate. Reach them at [email protected] and [email protected]. Share your feedback to support improve our site!

For now, time to prepare is now: Catastrophic floods forecast in Hawaii from Nolo remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.