‘Tit for tat’: Why is Trump cozying up to North Korea’s Kim Jong Un again?

As Washington now has a strong incentive to avoid the emergence of another major crisis beyond the Middle East, according to Park, the conflict involving Iran has altered the broader geopolitical environment in which Korean Peninsula diplomacy must now take place.

Money is additionally likely to have been at the forefront in the US president’s decision.

Rachel Minyoung Lee, senior fellow for the Stimson Center’s Korea Program and 38 North, said Trump may have employed the drills as leverage “to expedite South Korea’s investment and possibly to lay the groundwork for increasing South Korea’s defence cost-sharing”.

Trump has been pushing for the alliance to evolve towards a more symmetrical structure, where Seoul has greater responsibility for regional security. During his first term, Trump demanded a sharp increase in South Korea’s contribution to hosting US troops, arguing South Korea pays too little.

Economic tensions could also be a factor, Lee suggested.

Trump’s first administration renegotiated a bilateral free trade agreement and imposed tariffs affecting South Korean steel. Washington initially threatened 25-percent tariffs before agreeing to a 15-percent rate in return for South Korean investment and other commitments, including favourable regulation ⁠for American technology companies.

The president later threatened higher tariffs again, accusing Seoul of moving too gradually to implement the agreement.

“The lack of any concrete steps on South Korea’s part to invest in the US, which was the condition for keeping tariffs to 15 percent, appears to be a huge frustration for Trump,” Minyoung Lee said.

Does this mark a new chapter in US-North Korea relations?

Not yet, at least. According to Minyoung Lee, North Korea does not trust the US. Additionally, following the US-Israeli attack on Iran in February, Pyongyang has consistently portrayed Washington as an “untrustworthy actor and a disturber of the international order”.

Kim earlier this year made clear that a precondition for friendly ties was for Washington to recognise North Korea’s “constitutional status” — a reference to North Korea’s nuclear-armed status. “Even for President Trump, who is eager to engage Kim Jong Un again, recognising North Korea’s nuclear status seems like a very tall order,” Minyoung Lee said.

Overall, the analyst said, Trump appears to have employed the scaling back of joint military exercises with South Korea to “kill two birds with one stone: exercise leverage against South Korea and to remind the world, including [Kim], that he remains interested in reengaging North Korea”.