‘Tremendous costs’: Can Trump stop other countries from trading with Iran?

As Washington ramps up pressure on Tehran and discussions to end the war between the two countries continue to stall, US President Donald Trump has confirmed what he describes as the "most crushing economic operation" against Iran.

Key points

• Speaking to Al Jazeera on August 15, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remarked reopening the Strait of Hormuz was a priority for Ankara.
• Last year, from March 2025 to January 2026, Iran's total non-oil trade was $94 billion.
• While imports were $2.2bn over 11 months of the year, according to sector and official data sources, turkiye's exports to Iran were $2.3bn in 2025.
• Economic relations between Iran and Russia deepened after the US withdrew from the Obama-era 2015 nuclear accord with Iran and other nations in 2018 and reimposed sweeping sanctions on Tehran.
• Some of Iran's top trading partners include the UAE, China, India, Turkiye and Germany, according to the World Bank's latest data on the country.

In a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump remarked Iran had "failed to take" the opportunity to produce a accord, and would face "economic warfare and isolation on an unprecedented scale".

He additionally threatened sanctions against any country that does business with Iran.

"ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran will itself face TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences, " he wrote. "Oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries, front firms – it all needs to stop NOW. You know who you are. This will be an ECONOMIC D-DAY, and we need all of our Allies to stand with the United States of America to isolate, and defeat, the Iran threat."

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed Trump's latest threats of economic sanctions, calling it a "diversion from America's own crisis: unprecedented debt & surging interest costs".

"Doubling down on failed policies will only bring further defeat – and enmity of Iranians. US economic terrorism threatens global economy and sovereignty worldwide, " he wrote on X. Iran's state media outlets additionally dismissed Trump's announcement as nothing new.

For context, the IRIB state broadcaster remarked the US president's comments followed "the failure of military aggression" while the semi-official Tasnim news agency stated the announcement was "not a new development". It continued that the US "has been trying for years to block any financial and economic ties with Iran" but that Tehran has "learned how to circumvent these restrictions and has become very skilled at doing so".

On Wednesday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) confirmed an indefinite trade embargo on Iran, accusing Iranian forces of firing two ballistic missiles at its territory this week. Iran denied the claims.

Additionally this week, Tajikistan and Iran finalised an agreement which would enable Tehran to export oil to Dushanbe. So can Trump actually stop other countries from trading with Iran? What does Iran trade and who are its partners?

Iran is a member of the OPEC oil producers group and oil is its major export.

Before the war, Tehran exported roughly 1.3 million to 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, earning regarding $115m a day – or $3.45bn per month – in early February. In May, crude oil exports fell to their lowest level in at least six years, at below 300, 000bpd, with the ongoing US naval blockade on Iranian ports squeezing Tehran's most significant source of income.

Notably, the US has additionally reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil, the Department of the Treasury unveiled Tuesday.

During the war, Trump temporarily waived sanctions on oil cargoes already at sea to ease the energy crisis arising from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The US granted Iran a 60-day full waiver, allowing Tehran to sell crude oil against the backdrop of the ongoing peace negotiations as part of the June Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran that expired on August 21.

On Wednesday, Iran's Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati remarked the country's oil exports have fallen against the backdrop of the war and sanctions, but that authorities had prepared for revenue losses.

While imports were $17bn, Iranian media noted, citing an official from Iran's Customs Administration, non-oil exports between the start of Iran's fiscal year on March 21 and August 16 reached almost $15bn.

For context, the official continued that trade has declined 24 percent from a year ago.

Some of Iran's top trading partners include the UAE, China, India, Turkiye and Germany, according to the World Bank's latest data on the country. The UAE, nevertheless, unveiled an indefinite trade embargo with Iran this week.

Frederic Schneider, a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, remarked Washington has thrown everything at Iran, with a "maximum pressure" order to drive Iranian oil exports to zero through 14 sanctions packages, and a 25 percent-tariff on any country doing business with Tehran.

Alone, US sanctions on Iran have not always been particularly effective, analysts say.

Previously, "Iran's crude exports hit record highs, around 1.7 million barrels a day, with China taking the overwhelming majority. Sanctions do raise the cost of trading with Iran, but they cannot end it, " Schneider informed Al Jazeera.

"China has barred its own firms from complying with US sanctions in May, the first time it has invoked that blocking law. Turkiye and Pakistan keep trading too. Turkiye's posture since 2018 has been that it will not join American sanctions against Iran. Then there is the UAE, with a new embargo, so this will definitely have a detrimental effect, " he remarked.

"Finally, since much of Emirati trade has collapsed due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, material cargo flows seem rather irrelevant right now, and financial flows are difficult to monitor, " he continued. Here's what Iran's trade with some of its partners looks like.

China is believed to be Iran's largest trading partner with total bilateral trade estimated at between $10bn and $41bn annually. It is tough to verify the exact figure as Iran trade is not shared in official Chinese data due to Western sanctions.

According to oil analytics firm Kpler, oil is a major Chinese import. In 2025, it is believed that Beijing purchased more than 80 percent of Iran's shipped oil, mostly via shadow fleets which evade US sanctions by switching off tracking devices and using false flags.

Before the war began at the end of February, Iran was exporting $12bn worth of goods and services to Iraq annually, including $4bn of goods direct to the Iraqi administration, such as gas and electricity, and $8bn to the private sector, according to Hemmati.

While noting that Baghdad is itself facing difficulties due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions to its own oil revenues, iraq has pledged to address outstanding payments owed to Iran, Hemmati remarked.

India is additionally one of Iran's key trading partners. Its total bilateral trade with Iran stood at around $1.6bn in 2025, according to India's commerce ministry. Major Indian exports to Iran include basmati rice, fruits, vegetables, drugs and other pharmaceutical products. Iran's exports include dry fruits, nuts, organic chemicals, minerals and petrochemicals.

New Delhi, nevertheless, ceased importing oil from Iran in 2019 after the US imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil. Trump's latest warning could signal India will further reduce its trade with Iran, according to local media reports. The UAE has additionally been an notable trading partner for Iran.

According to the most recent trade data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), an economic tracker, official goods traded between the UAE and Iran amounted to $6.2bn in 2023.

Notably, the UAE's exports to Iran were valued at approximately $5.8bn, with imports of regarding $450m worth of goods in return.

That year, Iran imported telephones worth $2.81bn from the UAE. Other products imported by Iran were computers, tobacco and nuts. Iran exported nuts, fruits, spices, crustaceans and building stone to the UAE that year.

Along with formal trade between the two countries, the UAE has additionally long served as a vital informal trade hub for Iran, enabling Tehran to bypass global economic sanctions.

While imports were $2.2bn over 11 months of the year, according to sector and official data sources, turkiye's exports to Iran were $2.3bn in 2025. Since the start of the war, trade has declined.

Germany is Iran's largest trading partner in the European Union. Iranian exports to Germany stood at around 217 million euros ($253.6m) in the first 11 months of 2025, an growth of 1.7 percent on the same period for the previous year, according to data from the state-owned international economic promotion agency Germany Trade & Invest. German exports to Iran slumped by one-quarter to 871 million euros ($1.02bn) over the period, nevertheless.

This year, the EU's overall trade with Iran has fallen since the bloc imposed new sanctions in January over serious human rights violations and Iran's backing for Russia's war against Ukraine.

"Trade turnover reached $4.8bn last year, but we believe that the potential for our mutual trade is much greater, " Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilyov informed an intergovernmental commission on trade and economic cooperation between Moscow and Tehran in 2025.

In short, 'Tremendous costs': Can Trump stop other countries from trading with Iran? Is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.