Trump and Zelensky appear at loggerheads despite Oslo optimism

ByPaul Adams Diplomatic correspondent.

Key points

• On 12 October five Russian S-400 missiles hit Kyiv, reportedly before air raid sirens or mobile alerts had sounded.
• "Trump can always do another U-turn, " notes Ian Bond of the Centre for European Reform.
• But for Kyiv and its supporters this was another alarming sign that the White House was siding with the Kremlin.
• "What the Trump administration is doing is providing carrots to the Russians and sticks applied to the Ukrainians, " former US ambassador to Kyiv William Taylor informed the BBC.
• Much of this has its roots in Donald Trump's seemingly long-standing mistrust of Ukraine as a whole – and Zelensky in particular.

For context, the hug that Trump envoy Steve Witkoff offered Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of this afternoon's discussions in Oslo is unlikely to have dispelled the Ukrainian leader's misgivings concerning the current direction of US policy towards his war-ravaged country.

Zelensky posted a video of the moment on social media, with the message "Ukraine is working for peace. I thank our partners for their backing!"

But given everything that's happened this month, does the Ukrainian leader still regard Donald Trump as a partner?

In practice, the two men have never been close – that much is obvious – but have they now fallen out once and for all?

Both in rhetoric and actions, the past ten days have seen evidence of a rupture as deep as any in their fractious relationship. Just listen to the way they talk regarding each other.

"Zelensky's not a good guy for us to deal with, " Trump informed Newsmax last week. The verbal assault has continued this week.

"Zelensky doesn't know what he's talking about, " Trump informed a reporter on Monday when asked what he thought of the Ukrainian leader's suggestion that striking a diesel agreement with Russia put the US on the wrong side of history.

Such personal attacks are typical of Trump's sledgehammer approach to diplomacy. It's hard to know when to take them seriously.

In June, he lashed out at Israel's prime minister, saying Benjamin Netanyahu "has no f**king judgement". Four months afterwards, he endorsed Netanyahu enthusiastically, calling him a "great warrior prime minister".

"Trump can always do another U-turn, " notes Ian Bond of the Centre for European Reform. "But this does look bad."

For his part Zelensky has generally been circumspect in how he describes his unreliable but vital American counterpart.

But this month his frustration has been clear. Addressing a US congressional delegation, he spoke of "decisions on the American side that are hard to explain between friends" and voiced the fear that "some political decision has been made to slow down support for us."

Answering Trump's charge that he represented the principal obstacle to a negotiated settlement, Zelensky sounded more exasperated than ever.

"We have welcomed literally EVERY attempt by our partners to end this war with dignity, " he wrote on Telegram on Monday. But rhetoric aside, how bad is the relationship? In some ways, we've been here before.

After their notorious televised bust up in the Oval Office in February 2025, at which Trump accused Zelensky of "gambling with World War III", the US suspended military assistance and restricted intelligence sharing.

For context, the crisis only lasted a week. And when the Trump administration decided, afterwards that year, that it no longer wanted to finance direct military assistance to Ukraine, a mechanism was put in place for European countries to pay for American equipment instead.

After this year's US war with Iran, has been badly needed US-made Patriot air defence missiles, one exception.

Against the backdrop of a global shortage, the supply to Ukraine has slowed to a trickle, making it harder than ever for Kyiv to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles.

In practice, the Washington Post, quoting an unnamed Ukrainian official, remarked "only a couple" of Patriot interceptors remained in Ukraine's stockpile, and that the Trump administration had slowed down the process by which US allies seek approval to transfer their stocks.

Similar reservations have been voiced previously, but the latest reports – not confirmed by US office-holders – come against an increasingly tough backdrop for Kyiv.

As Ukrainian negotiators arrived in Miami for discussions with Trump's all-purpose envoys Witkoff and Jared Kushner, they were blindsided by the news that the president had just struck a agreement with Vladimir Putin to open US markets to Russian diesel, earlier this month.

Experts questioned whether it would do much to drive down US petrol rates, ahead of congressional mid-term elections (the apparent motive), but as a signal of US displeasure over Ukraine's campaign of long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries and Washington's willingness to do deals with the Kremlin, it represented a stinging rebuke to Kyiv.

Last Friday, Trump went further, waiving wide-ranging sanctions on Russia just two days before they were due to take effect.

Trump remarked the sanctions contained in the Graham Act (named after the former South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham, a vocal supporter of Ukraine who died in July) would hinder his efforts to broker peace. But for Kyiv and its supporters this was another alarming sign that the White House was siding with the Kremlin.

"What the Trump administration is doing is providing carrots to the Russians and sticks applied to the Ukrainians, " former US ambassador to Kyiv William Taylor informed the BBC. "It's inexplicable and saddening."

Kiriil Dmitriev, a senior Putin envoy, called it "an important and truly historic moment".

For Moscow, this felt like a welcome return to the "spirit of Alaska", a phrase much touted by Russian authorities after the Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage in August 2025.

Adding to the impression that Trump is turning his back on Ukraine is the allegation – again not confirmed by Washington – that the US has restricted the flow of intelligence and interfered with Ukraine's access to Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet service.

Against the backdrop of an escalation in Russia's drone and missile war on Ukraine's cities, Kyiv states advance warning provided by US satellite intelligence has been lacking.

"We didn't receive it during ballistic attacks for three days, " Zelensky informed NBC News.

Meanwhile, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, denied there had been any pause in intelligence sharing, blaming a "software problem" for the temporary lack of early warnings. Similar uncertainty surrounds Ukraine's access to Starlink.

Meanwhile, a week ago, Ukrainian authorities noted that the system was being throttled, with terminals unable to maintain connections at high speeds, making it harder for Ukraine's military to intercept fast moving Russian drones.

Since the summer, Ukraine has struggled to cope with a wave of attacks by advanced, jet-powered drones.

It's not clear where any order to limit Ukraine's employ of Starlink – or its military grade equivalent Starshield – originated. Reuters documented that it came from the White House.

Rubio remarked "no-one at the White House ordered anyone to slow down internet."

But the fact that such suspicions surface so frequently points to the lack of trust that continues to infect US-Ukrainian relations.

For context, a decade ago, Trump became convinced that Ukraine had tried to prevent him from becoming US president. Among a number of unfounded allegations was the suggestion that the US Democratic National Committee had a server hidden somewhere in Ukraine.

In short, trump and Zelensky appear at loggerheads despite Oslo optimism is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.