Trump’s sinking approval ratings a bad midterm sign for Republicans

Trump's sinking approval ratings a bad midterm sign for Republicans.

Key points

• 23 Marist poll demonstrates Democrat James Talarico leading Trump-endorsed Republican Ken Paxton among registered voters, 50% to 44% – outside the poll's 4.4-percentage-point margin of error.
• On the same day, a survey by longtime pollster New Hampshire-based American Research Group put Trump's approval rating at 29% from 1, 100 respondents.
• "I take it that he's closer to 40%, " remarked Shaw, who is on Fox News' Decision Desk and conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson.
• 23 NPR/PBS News/Marist poll saw Trump with 39% approving his job and 53% strongly disapproving, the highest share of Americans during either of Trump's terms.
• 24, Trump had a 39% approval rating and a almost 58% disapproval rating.

Trump's sinking approval ratings a bad midterm sign for Republicans. Terry Collins USA TODAY. Poll: Trump's approval rating marks historic low.

Trump's approval rating has fallen to a new low, with less than one-third of Americans approving of his performance in the White House, polls show.

President Donald Trump's job approval rating has fallen to historic lows, with one poll aggregator showing an average of 34.7% approval.

Analysts suggest the president's unpopularity could lead to a "Blue wave" in the midterm elections, with Democrats projected to take control of Congress.

Voters may employ the midterms to send a message concerning their dissatisfaction with the president, even though he is not on the ballot.

Recent polls show Trump's approval rating ranging from a low of 29% to a high of 39%, depending on the survey.

As plenty of voters say they see their vote in congressional elections as a referendum on the president, a string of recent polls for President Donald Trump are a bad sign for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Polls from this week show the president's approval rating is reaching new all-time lows. At present, Trump has an average approval rating of 34.7% and a disapproval rating of 62% among U.S. Adults, down from the 52% approval he had a month into his second term, according to FiftyPlusOne, a polling and elections tracking website that aggregates major polls.

"The reaction from the public is much more severe than it was during his first presidency, " G. Elliott Morris, FiftyPlusOne's head of analytics, informed USA TODAY. "The wheels have just totally fallen off in the eyes of the public in the last six months."

FiftyPlusOne estimates that Democrats will gain 25 seats in the House of Representatives and four or five in the Senate, enough to gain majorities in both houses in November.

"It's very, very, very unlikely for Republicans to hold on to their majority, " Morris remarked. "This election has all of the hallmarks of a big blue wave in our analysis."

President's slide in poll continues: New poll demonstrates more bad news for Trump's approval rating, good news for Dems. Trump's approval ratings tumble ahead of midterms.

Meanwhile, a Sept. 21 Reuters/Ipsos poll saw Trump sink to the lowest approval rating of his political career. Just 32% of Americans approved of Trump's job performance, down 3 percentage points from its last survey and a new record low throughout both of his presidential terms.

In an Emerson College poll published Sept. 24, Trump had a 39% approval rating and a almost 58% disapproval rating. While just 26% remarked Trump has done better than projected, the survey remarked 56% of probable voters think the president has done worse than projected in his second term.

Trump's approval is being dragged down by the nation's struggling economy, high gas rates, a trade war, immigration enforcement and the ongoing war in Iran as Democrats look to take control of the GOP-led Congress. The president has repeatedly asked his supporters to pretend he's on the ballot, but an association with him could harm GOP candidates among independents.

Meanwhile, a Sept. 22 Economist/YouGov poll indicated that Trump's approval rating fell 5 points in a single week, from 40% to 35%, erasing five consecutive weeks of gains in the same poll. The drop left the president just 2 points above the lowest rating he's ever recorded in the survey.

Meanwhile, a Sept. 23 NPR/PBS News/Marist poll saw Trump with 39% approving his job and 53% strongly disapproving, the highest share of Americans during either of Trump's terms. The poll discovered independents favor Democrats for Congress 57% to 32% and 54% of independents describe their congressional vote as a vote against Trump.

Morris remarked national, state, and local polls, record Democratic turnout in primaries, and the perceptions concerning the economy and the war all line up as solid predictors of Democratic wins.

"Of course, there's always some worry of overstating either side, any potential victory. It everyone has a right to do. They've been wrong before, " Morris remarked. "But when the data is pointing in the same direction, then that warrants a certain level of confidence."

While individual polls may vary, major polling averages continue to put Trump in negative territory overall.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Austin, remarked Trump's approval rating among registered voters and probable voters hovers around the high 30s and low 40s.

"I take it that he's closer to 40%, " remarked Shaw, who is on Fox News' Decision Desk and conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson. "If the dam would break, and the average across those reputable polls gets closer to 35-36%, then I think it presents a challenging environment broadly for Republicans."

But Shaw conceded Trump is a drag on some Republican candidates in competitive races.

"A lot of Republicans are walking around with a weighted vest because of Trump's low approval numbers, " Shaw remarked.

For example, in Michigan's pivotal Senate race, a Sept. 22 Suffolk University poll has Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a doctor and former public health official, leading Republican and former congressman Mike Rogers 47% to 40% in a contest largely driven by opposition to Trump. Almost half of the probable voters in Michigan surveyed noted they were casting their ballot "to change the direction President Trump is leading the nation." That 48% dwarfed the 20% who want to backing Trump.

Senate candidate's message to Trump: Mike Rogers breaks with Trump, calls for Iran war to 'end rapidly'.

And in Texas' crucial Senate battle, a Sept. 23 Marist poll demonstrates Democrat James Talarico leading Trump-endorsed Republican Ken Paxton among registered voters, 50% to 44% – outside the poll's 4.4-percentage-point margin of error. By almost a two-to-one margin, Texas voters polled are more probable to say that their congressional vote is mostly against Trump than in backing of him.

For context, the Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated that only 17% of voters approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living and only 34% of voters approve of Trump's war against Iran.

Democrats need to maintain all their Senate seats and flip four Republican seats as Trump's declining popularity comes just weeks before early voting begins in plenty of states.

Voters aren't going to blame themselves for their own challenges, and they will always blame the people in office if their budget is stretched or the quality of their lives has declined, pollster David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center, informed USA TODAY. If there's some blame to offer, residents can't vote against Trump, but they can sure send a message through his party's candidates that they are not happy.

"This would be a very different midterm if his approval rating is 49%, " Paleologos continued.

Despite Trump's low approval ratings, Shaw uses the closely watched U.S. Senate races in Texas and Michigan as examples of the choices voters have to create.

What the Republicans want to say is, 'Do you think (Democrat) James Talarico should be representing the state of Texas for six years, as opposed to (Republican) Ken Paxton?' Shaw remarked. In Michigan, 'Would you rather have Abdul El Sayed for six years over Mike Rogers?'

"So the thinking is, 'You may be mad, but the other side is going to do more damage, and that's what you should be focused on, '" Shaw concluded. "Now will that work? I'm not sure." Contributing: Fernando Cervantes Jr., Susan Page, USA TODAY. Share your feedback to support improve our site!

For now, trumps sinking approval ratings a bad midterm sign for Republicans remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.