US midterms: 2 days to go – what polls say as Trump, El-Sayed hit the trail

With two days to the United States midterm elections, Democratic and Republican leaders are making last-ditch efforts to woo voters, with the cost-of-living crisis, exacerbated by the US-Israel war on Iran, becoming one of the key talking points.

Key points

• In Kansas, a Washington Post-Schar School poll published on Friday suggested Democrat Adam Hamilton was leading against Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 52 percent to 43 percent.
• Doug Heye, a Republican strategist and former communications director for the Republican National Committee, questioned the nine-point lead of the Washington Post-Schar School survey.
• Democrats continue to lead Republicans by 51.5 percent to 43.1 percent, according to the latest RealClearPolling average.
• But another Emerson College survey indicated a tighter race, with Hamilton ahead of Marshall by 50 percent to 47percent.
• He was referring to a Des Moines Register poll published days before the 2024 presidential election that indicated Kamala Harris leading Trump by three percentage points in Iowa.

According to the latest survey, Democrats are still ahead of the Republicans, but a number of closely fought Senate races may decide which party ends up in control of the US Congress.

While Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate who has faced an rose wave of Islamophobic attacks, will be holding events in Michigan, on Sunday, President Donald Trump will be campaigning in Iowa and Kansas. Here is what to know. What do the latest US midterm polls say?

While an Emerson College poll conducted from October 24 to 26 indicated a 10-point Democratic lead, a national THP/MM survey conducted on October 28 and 29 put Democrats ahead by 54 percent to 41 percent.

Natalie Jackson, a political analyst and pollster, informed Al Jazeera that the results reflected public dissatisfaction with Trump and the economy.

"Polling demonstrates an environment that is pretty favourable to the Democrats. The president is particularly unpopular, Americans feel the pinch of high costs. It are partly due to tariffs and the war in Iran, and the general sentiment is that Republicans did not deliver in the last two years."

"I don't know how it plays out, but, you know, we saw an outlier poll in Iowa just two years ago that caused a lot of damage to the whole polling industry, " Heye remarked.

He was referring to a Des Moines Register poll published days before the 2024 presidential election that indicated Kamala Harris leading Trump by three percentage points in Iowa. Trump went on to win the state by regarding 13 points, a difference of 16 points from the poll's margin.

"A lot of Republicans just don't want to answer calls from pollsters, " he continued.

Jackson, the political analyst, additionally stated polling might not accurately reflect the result of individual Senate contests.

"In some individual races – particularly the close Senate races – we could see polling error that shifts the race in one direction or another, " she remarked.

"Pollsters have documented some potential matters with getting Republicans to answer polls. That might indicate that polls are underestimating Republicans, but we don't know until the votes are counted." What happened on the campaign trail previously 24 hours?

As the election nears, both parties are focusing their final campaign messages on the economy and the cost of living.

While Democrats have been focusing on affordability problems, Trump has been conducting telephone rallies for Republican candidates in closely contested races.

Heye remarked Republicans were struggling to convince voters that their economic policies would improve the situation in the country.

Asked whether Republicans had discovered a convincing closing message, he stated: "No, they haven't. That's a major part of their challenge."

For context, the Republican strategist remarked candidates should focus on matters voters were raising, particularly the cost of energy, healthcare, groceries and other everyday expenses.

"Families are making very real economic decisions; you have to address to them what you're going to do to solve those problems, " Heye remarked.

Celinda Lake, a Democratic strategist and pollster working with El-Sayed's campaign in Michigan, remarked Democrats were additionally facing questions regarding what they would deliver if they controlled Congress.

"The feelings about the Democrats are negative, too, which is very different from, say, 2018, when Democrats were positively perceived, " she remarked.

Lake remarked while numerous voters were seeking change, they were still unsure what either of the parties would do. Where will Trump, El-Sayed and other candidates campaign today?

Trump is scheduled to hold rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. The president had initially cancelled both appearances before reversing his decision on Friday.

In Iowa, in one of the contested Senate races, Trump will campaign with Republican US Representative Ashley. This person faces Democrat Josh Turek. In Kansas, Senator Marshall is additionally looking for re-election against Democrat Adam Hamilton in a tight contest.

This state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but rising farming costs and opposition to Trump's immigration crackdown have created this race unexpectedly competitive.

Heye remarked Trump should not have cancelled the appearances in the first place.

"They never should have been cancelled to begin with, " he remarked. "Whether they help or not, they certainly help Trump to show that I'm out there trying to do the things to get my people over the line."

As he seeks to defeat Republican Mike Rogers in the Senate race, meanwhile, El-Sayed is scheduled to campaign in Detroit and Southfield, Michigan.

Lake, who is working with El-Sayed's campaign, remarked the candidate had produced affordability key to his message.

"He's particularly clear. He notes, 'Capital out of politics, funds in your pockets, and healthcare for all.'". She remarked the Michigan race would depend heavily on voter turnout.

"I think the race is going to be really close. What we're looking at is turnout, " she remarked. How plenty of Americans have already voted?

As reports indicate, more than 51 million Americans have already voted. Both parties have encouraged voters to cast their ballots using the mail-in system or create aims to vote on Tuesday.

Since they do not establish how those voters voted, but early-voting numbers do not show which party will win.

Lake, the Democratic strategist, remarked turnout would be one of the most notable factors in the elections.

"Did Trump really rally the Republicans? Did the Democrats come out in record numbers?" she asked.

She additionally identified young voters and the gender gap as notable indicators to follow during the election.

Jackson, the political analyst, remarked the final two days will probably not bring major changes to the national political environment.

Taken together, the developments around US midterms: 2 days to go – what polls say as Trump, point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.