US pressure on Israel needed for peace in Syria

Meanwhile, a day after a suspected Israeli attack on the Abu al-Duhur airbase near Idlib, northwest Syria, US Ambassador to Turkiye Tom Barrack has suggested creating a "deconfliction mechanism" between Turkiye, Syria and Israel.

Key points

• That changed when al-Assad fled in the early hours of December 8, 2024.
• And since the fall of al-Assad, Israel has additionally shifted focus from Iranian influence in Syria to Turkish influence in the country.
• Analysts informed Al Jazeera that Tuesday's attack was in fact a message from Tel Aviv directed at the halls of power in Ankara.
• It additionally accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of pursuing "expansionist and destabilising policies in the region ahead of the elections in Israel".
• "Israeli-Syrian talks are stagnating because the ball is in Israel's court and they don't see a need to prioritise talks with Damascus currently, " Akil remarked.

But despite the intervention from the US official, analysts believe the proposal may not be able to stop Israel. It has conducted regular attacks on Syria for years, and continues to occupy Syrian territory.

"It is difficult to have a deconfliction mechanism only one party causing conflict in the first place, " Samy Akil, a senior adviser with The Syria Report, informed Al Jazeera.

Analysts and diplomatic sources say that Israel is the party holding back progress on discussions and the easing of tensions with Syria. It is under a new administration since the overthrow of former President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. At the end of a more than decade-long war, Syria is now seeking better relations with the West.

"Israeli-Syrian talks are stagnating because the ball is in Israel's court and they don't see a need to prioritise talks with Damascus currently, " Akil remarked. Turkiye and Israel trade verbal shots.

Under the former al-Assad regime, Israel often attacked Iranian-aligned targets or interests in Syria – including the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April 2024 – but avoided directly attacking Syrian state targets.

That changed when al-Assad fled in the early hours of December 8, 2024. Israel attacked Syria's military infrastructure around the country, aiming to cripple the new government's military forces. It additionally threatened the post-Assad military with deploying forces south of Damascus.

And since the fall of al-Assad, Israel has additionally shifted focus from Iranian influence in Syria to Turkish influence in the country. The Turks backed a number of anti-Assad rebel groups, numerous Syrians in exile spent considerable time in Turkiye, and Ankara has sought to build solid ties with Damascus and Syria's new President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

While it halted short of claiming responsibility for the actual attack, on Tuesday evening, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement that seemed to confirm that suspicion.

"Israel and Syria agreed to a status quo in security matters, which Syria was on the verge of breaching by permitting Turkish troops to deploy at an airbase near Aleppo, " the statement remarked.

"Israel repeatedly cautioned Syria that such a deployment would pose a threat to Israel's security. Syria chose to ignore these warnings." Turkiye has slammed the Israeli account of events.

"The untenable allegations put forward by the Israeli Prime Minister's Office are intended to legitimise Israel's unlawful airstrikes targeting Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity, " the Republic of Turkiye's Directorate of Communications remarked.

Enter US Ambassador Barrack and the idea of a deconfliction mechanism. This would act as a channel of communication between the concerned actors – Syria, Turkiye and Israel. It would be facilitated by the US, and would aim to prevent military escalations.

Notably, the strategy appears to be similar to what the US is trying to build in Lebanon between Beirut and Tel Aviv. That accord is aimed at stopping Israeli attacks on Lebanon, disarming Hezbollah, and convincing Israel to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon. Nevertheless, experts say these processes have yet to show results, largely as of Israel's military superiority and the Netanyahu government's willingness to undermine negotiations through unilateral military actions.

For its part, the Syrian administration has shown a robust willingness to find a solution with Israel, even if it has emphasised that it is not willing to agree to full normalisation.

That is despite the Israeli landgrab of Syrian territory in the Golan Heights and Jabal al-Sheikh in December 2024, and the continued deployment of checkpoints that harass and at times kidnap Syrian citizens.

Early on Wednesday morning, Israeli troops reportedly conducted a raid on Quneitra in southwestern Syria and abducted two individuals.

Analysts say that for any deconfliction mechanism to work, all parties must be committed to working towards the goal.

"In other words, at what point does a deconfliction mechanism provide added value when any sort of Syrian military buildup 300 kilometres away from Israeli borders is perceived as a threat?" Akil remarked, adding that Syria's small Soviet-era air force would not "seriously pose a threat to Israel".

Galip Dalay, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, informed Al Jazeera that for any mechanism to work, the US would need to apply pressure on Netanyahu's administration.

Dalay remarked Netanyahu, who is running for re-election in October, is probable looking for an escalation with either Lebanon or Syria – or in Palestine – after US President Donald Trump pressured Israel to back down in the war on Iran.

But earlier in August, Netanyahu explicitly rejected the Gaza disarmament plan confirmed by Trump, forcing it to be altered – and did not receive any public pushback from the US.

"If the US puts proper pressure on Israel, they would listen, " Dalay remarked. "We saw this with Iran. It was the US who created the decision, and even though Netanyahu didn't like it, they had to go along with the decision."

Dalay continued: "The question is not only about if there is a need for a deconfliction mechanism in Syria; it is to what extent the US is willing to make it credible and functional, and if the US is willing to put pressure on Israel."

In short, US pressure on Israel needed for peace in Syria is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.