‘Very’ strong El Nino emerging, to last till Feb 2027: WMO

'Particularly' robust El Nino emerging, to last till Feb 2027: WMO It could alter temperatures and rainfall patterns globally, notes WMO Secretary-General.

Key points

• WMO further remarked the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – the Indian Ocean counterpart of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – was probable to develop during September-November.
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD), earlier this month, confirmed that the monsoon rainfall in the afterwards half of August came under the cloud of El Nino.
• El Nino is a natural ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that is caused when the equatorial Pacific Ocean warms significantly and interferes with weather patterns globally.
• "A positive phase of the IOD is also expected to develop with a seasonal mean value of 0.9 degrees Celsius, " WMO remarked.
• El Nino is firmly established and is projected to strengthen.

Even though the Met Department in India is yet to spell the post-monsoon seasonal forecast, the intensifying El Nino could keep cold at bay during the upcoming winter season, experts suggested.

Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Thursday cautioned of an impending "very strong" El Nino that could last till February of next year and could alter temperature and rainfall patterns globally.

"El Nino is firmly established and is projected to strengthen. It has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies throughout the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to growth as El Niño intensifies, " stated WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo at a press briefing on Thursday.

El Nino is a natural ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that is caused when the equatorial Pacific Ocean warms significantly and interferes with weather patterns globally. It is known to trigger extreme weather – heatwaves, wet spells and extreme temperatures. The intensity of El Nino is determined by the sea surface temperature average over three months in the Nino 3.4 region along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In recent months, this temperature index value surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal during May-July and further escalated 2 degrees Celsius mark above normal in July, confirming the rapid intensification.

Europe, this year, witnessed one of the hottest summers in recent decades and August, according to plenty of global weather agencies, noted record temperatures in plenty of parts of the globe.

According to The UN agency's chief, this El Nino episode was pushing resources to their limits and will require extensive preparations and coordination to tide over the extreme weather.

She remarked: "Never before in the 50-year history of the WMO have we launched such a major mobilisation with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods." El Nino effect over India.

Notably, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), earlier this month, confirmed that the monsoon rainfall in the afterwards half of August came under the cloud of El Nino. But, with three-fourths of the season over, the monsoon has largely escaped the developing El Nino.

In practice, the positive phase of IOD could counter El Nino and in late August, the IOD had, briefly, swung towards the positive phase but returned to neutral, the IMD remarked.

Taken together, the developments around 'Very' strong El Nino emerging, to last till Feb 2027: WMO point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.