War and heat: Why are wheat prices soaring?

Wheat rates have risen sharply against the backdrop of disruptions to Black Sea exports as the Russia-Ukraine war continues and as changing weather patterns cause droughts that have sharply reduced production.

Key points

• In Asia, second-largest wheat importer Indonesia purchased $361m of wheat from Ukraine and $102m from Russia between 2023 and 2024, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.
• According to Ukraine's Ministry of Infrastructure, in July, Ukraine suffered 35 Russian attacks on vessels in port, 22 at sea and 67 on port facilities.
• According to Glauber, during the 2022 global grain cost surge, other wheat producing countries such as India exported more to produce up for shortages.
• An official at Indonesia's Flour Millers' Association informed Reuters last week that current stocks can meet immediate food-grade wheat requirements.
• "If realised, the United States yield would be the lowest since 2015, " the USDA remarked.

Over the past month, Russia and Ukraine have stepped up attacks on each other's grain terminals on the Black Sea. With Russia the world's largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine among the top 10 grain-producing countries, these attacks have taken their toll on global wheat and grain supply.

Chicago wheat futures, the global benchmark for the grain market, hit a three-year high on Friday, before nudging down 0.54 percent on Monday to $7.79 per bushel by 02: 00 GMT. Authorities in Russia's Rostov region called a state of emergency on Friday after announcing that port closures and navigation disruptions in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea basin have led to a pile-up of agricultural products at farms.

Meanwhile, the rising temperatures and lack of rain have threatened to cut this year's wheat harvest in South Africa's Swartland. It produces regarding 20 percent of the country's wheat. Here's what we know. What impact is the Russia-Ukraine war having on rates?

Over the past month, strikes on ports, vessels and grain facilities against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have disrupted grain terminals and forced shippers to delay or cancel cargo loadings during the peak export season.

While Russian missile attacks have impacted Ukraine's grain exports, Ukraine's drone attacks in the Sea of Azov have additionally sharply curtailed Russian shipments of both grain and wheat. Meanwhile, attacks on Russia's Novorossiysk and Taman ports have rose shipping costs out of its Black Sea ports.

According to Ukraine's Ministry of Infrastructure, in July, Ukraine suffered 35 Russian attacks on vessels in port, 22 at sea and 67 on port facilities. By comparison, the total number of vessel strikes for the whole of 2025 was just 14.

On Friday, Kyiv's agricultural minister remarked recent Russian air attacks have destroyed around 90 percent of retailers' food logistics. With transport of wheat curtailed, rates have risen, raising fears of food insecurity worldwide.

Joe Glauber, a research fellow emeritus in the director general's office at the International Food Policy Research Institute, remarked that the problem, therefore, is less the amount of wheat being produced and more regarding the cost of getting it to buyers and consumers.

"There's plenty of wheat in Russia and Ukraine, and ultimately that wheat will create it out on to the market. But right now it can't, or it comes out with a particularly high cost, and so wheat costs have reflected that, " he informed Al Jazeera.

"There's a lot of wheat in the world.it's not a question of availability, it's a question of affordability, " he continued.

Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, usually spends around $3bn per year on importing wheat. In the first half of 2026, it sourced more than 82 percent of its stock from Russia and Ukraine.

In Asia, second-largest wheat importer Indonesia purchased $361m of wheat from Ukraine and $102m from Russia between 2023 and 2024, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Indonesia usually sources between 15 percent and 20 percent of its wheat from the two countries.

For context, an official at Indonesia's Flour Millers' Association informed Reuters last week that current stocks can meet immediate food-grade wheat requirements. "But we don't have abundant or excess supply. We have to look at other origins such as Bulgaria, Australia, Romania and Argentina for cargoes that do not obtain shipped from Russia and Ukraine, " the official stated. How does climate change fit into this?

Besides the war in Ukraine, droughts and drier weather patterns have taken a toll on wheat production and contributed to rising rates.

As of July 1, the US, additionally one of the biggest wheat exporters, is forecast to yield "46.7 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from last month and down 8.2 bushels from last year's average yield of 54.9 bushels per acre", according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

In a report updated on August 14, the department wrote: "This year's small crop is a product of long-term decline in US wheat acreage and widespread drought impacts on HRW production in the Great Plains States. Total wheat supplies are forecast down 13 percent from the previous year, with larger beginning stocks dampening the effect of the smaller crop."

For Canada, the world's sixth-largest wheat producer, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service discovered that for the 2026-2027 production year, total production is forecast to be 34.6 million metric tons (MMT) – additionally 13 percent lower than the year before – due to reduced planted area and a return to lower-than-average yields.

Against the backdrop of the heatwaves that have hit European countries over the past three months, wheat production in the bloc has additionally reduced. According to COCERAL, the European association of trade in cereals, oilseeds, rice, pulses, olive oil, oils and fats, animal feed and agrosupply, the excessive heat is projected to reduce grain crops in 2026 by around 9 million tonnes to 286 million tonnes.

In a report published in July, COCERAL remarked: "The weather has kicked off to affect corn pollination in the southern half of France and in Hungary. More damage is projected from the forecast heat in other parts of the EU."

In practice, the El Nino weather pattern is additionally anticipated to bring drier-than-usual conditions to the Southern Hemisphere this year, with South Africa and Australia projected to experience droughts consequently. What can be done to mitigate all this?

While the Russia-Ukraine war continues, in July 2022, the year the war began, a Black Sea Grain Initiative was brokered to allow for the safe exports of grain, food and fertiliser from Ukrainian ports to stabilise and lower global food costs.

While that agreement held, more than 1, 000 ships full of grain and other foodstuffs left Ukraine, according to the EU. Nevertheless, Russia concluded the agreement in July 2023.

For context, the answer to the current crisis is far from straightforward, experts say.

While the impact of climate change could be mitigated by governments implementing policies including improving water management on farms through the apply of reservoirs to backing drought-affected crops and reduce the loss of production, bringing rates down now would necessitate a major shift in war strategy by both Russia and Ukraine.

While alternative routes exist to ship out grain from Russia and Ukraine, they are costly, adding that a return to a feasible Black Sea Grain Initiative "would help calm wheat markets a lot", moreover, Glauber explained. One answer may be for other countries to step in.

"India, for example, had record exports in 2022. It's probably less probable this year, just as of El Nino and other other factors affecting them, but they could additionally provide more wheat. I think the world wheat market proved particularly resilient in 2022, and I expect we'll see the same in in 2026, " he stated.

Taken together, the developments around war and heat: Why are wheat prices soaring? Point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.