War has made Tehran more confident, say US intelligence agencies

War has created Tehran more confident, say US intelligence agencies.

Key points

• Anwar Iqbal Published September 5, 2026 Updated September 5, 2026 07: 54am.
• Representative Josh Gottheimer, a New Jersey Democrat and Intelligence Committee member, remarked: "The Iranians think they have maximum leverage."
• Representative Jason Crow, a Colorado Democrat and member of the House Intelligence Committee, described the Iranian leadership as increasingly confident.
• The New York Times documented that Iranian-linked cyber hackers may have regrouped after suffering losses early in the war.
• Alex Orleans, a former US administration cybersecurity contractor who tracks Iranian hacking groups, stated Iran's cyberoperators probably feel emboldened.

Anwar Iqbal Published September 5, 2026 Updated September 5, 2026 07: 54am. Join our Whatsapp Channel. Add Dawn as a trusted source.

WASHINGTON: Intelli­gence agencies in the United States believe that six months of war may have created Iran more, not less, confident in its ability to withstand American pressure and continue the conflict.

Meanwhile, a New York Times report, published on Friday, notes "Iran has grown more confident in its ability to attack targets in the Middle East and appears determined to continue the conflict for months to frustrate the United States". The assessment comes as clashes resumed this week.

"The new exchanges have been limited so far. But the intelligence reports, according to individuals who have read them, suggest that Iran's hardline administration might be contemplating a significant escalation, " the newspaper documented.

In practice, the intelligence assessments additionally indicate that reaching an agreement to end the war could prove challenging. Current and former US authorities informed the NYT that there are few indications Tehran is ready to create a agreement with Washington.

Some authorities believe Tehran may seek to prolong the conflict until at least the US mid-term elections in November, calculating that continued warfare and high energy costs could create difficulties for President Trump and Republicans.

For context, the report notes Donald Trump is at present not pursuing negotiations as he believes that economic pressure can force Tehran to produce concessions concerning its control of the Strait of Hormuz and, eventually, its nuclear programme. But authorities familiar with the intelligence informed the NYT that sanctions could provoke further escalation. Missile and drone capability.

Iran's military calculations appear shaped by its growing missile and drone capability and by its understanding of how to employ the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. The strait carried roughly one-fifth of the world's oil before the war.

Representative Jason Crow, a Colorado Democrat and member of the House Intelligence Committee, described the Iranian leadership as increasingly confident. "Iranians are feeling pretty bullish about their position, " he remarked.

But meanwhile he acknowledged that Iran has suffered substantial damage.

Other authorities briefed on the intelligence stated Iran may additionally believe that the United States will be constrained in launching major new attacks as its ammunition stocks decline.

He suggested that, from Tehran's perspective, continuing to pressure the Trump administration could serve its interests.

Meanwhile, the conflict has additionally opened a cyber front. According to the Times, US authorities believe Iran-linked hackers were probably responsible for attacks on more than 100 American water systems in late July. Although some caused disruptions requiring manual overrides and precautionary boil-water advisories, the attacks did not appear to create drinking water unsafe.

Authorities stated Iranian hackers have additionally shown interest in US oil and gas infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the New York Times documented that Iranian-linked cyber hackers may have regrouped after suffering losses early in the war. Former intelligence authorities and cybersecurity experts stated such attacks could remain attractive to Tehran since even limited disruptions might weaken American public backing for a conflict with no clear end.

Alex Orleans, a former US administration cybersecurity contractor who tracks Iranian hacking groups, stated Iran's cyberoperators probably feel emboldened. He cautioned that even unsuccessful attacks could serve a broader purpose by exhausting public patience with the conflict.

In practice, the report additionally describes Iranian efforts to influence US politics, including propaganda and social-media activity focused on mid-term elections. Meta lately identified a small network of Iran-based accounts on Facebook and Instagram that posted material concerning US politics.

Taken together, the intelligence assessments present a picture of an Iranian administration that has been damaged but does not regard itself as defeated. Six months of warfare may have strengthened Tehran's belief that it can absorb punishment, retain significant military capabilities and continue imposing costs on the United States and its allies. Published in Dawn, September 5th, 2026.

Anwar Iqbal is the Washington correspondent for Dawn. During a long journalism career, he has interviewed world leaders and cultural icons, including US Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, poets Faiz Ahmed Faiz and Josh Malihabadi, Bacha Khan, Nobel laureate Abdus Salam, and humanitarian Abdul Sattar Edhi.

Taken together, the developments around war has made Tehran more confident, say US intelligence agencies point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.