What to watch in Tuesday’s Florida primary elections

After being named Trump’s secretary of state, rubio left his seat in the chamber in early 2025.

Since then, former Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody has filled his Senate seat. She is competing in Tuesday’s Republican primary to retain her position and is expected to be the frontrunner this November.

But one of the president’s Democratic foes could bring national attention to this race.

Alexander Vindman, the US Army veteran and former National Security Council aide during Trump’s first term, is among the candidates competing for the Democratic nomination.

His whistleblower complaint helped trigger Trump’s first impeachment in 2019. In the Democratic Senate primary, he is competing against progressive state lawmaker Angie Nixon.

It is unclear which Democrat would have the advantage in a head-to-head race against Moody.

A poll released late last month by the University of North Florida identified Moody’s rate of support to be fairly stable, at 50 percent, in one-on-one contests with either candidate.

While Vindman had 40 percent, nixon garnered 42 percent support in such a face-off. In each case, 8 to 10 percent of Florida voters signalled they either were undecided, would not vote or preferred another candidate.

Still, the pollster indicated that the margins were tight. Appointed senators such as Moody generally have a history of not faring as well as candidates who were elected outright.

Will a longtime Democrat be ousted from Congress?

One of the Democrats’ most notable legislators is in the fight of her political life during Tuesday’s primary.

Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the former chair of the Democratic National Committee, is facing steep odds after her congressional district was split in the Republican redistricting push.

The 59-year-old is now running in South Florida’s new 20th congressional district. It includes parts of Fort Lauderdale and Pompano Beach.

But Black Democrats make up a sizeable portion of the new district and some local leaders have been slow to warm to Wasserman Schultz, arguing instead that a Black politician should represent them.

Wasserman Schultz is a strong defender of Israel.

Tuesday’s Democratic primary will see Wasserman Schultz facing several Black Democrats, including progressive educator Elijah Manley, 27, and former Broward County Mayor Dale Holness, 69.

As voters show increasing openness towards progressive outsiders over establishment candidates, some analysts see the race as a reflection of the broader schisms within the Democratic Party.

Whoever wins the primary is expected to prevail in November’s general election. The district is considered left-leaning, making it one of the few safe seats for Democrats in Florida.

Conservative Democrat faces challenge

In the greater Miami area, Congressman Jared Moskowitz – one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress – is facing a strong challenge from Oliver Larkin, a democratic socialist union organiser.