Where the US midterm elections will be won and lost

ByMike Hills Visual Journalism team.

Key points

• And they would additionally need to pick up seats in states that Trump won by double-digits in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
• The president proudly declared that gas was "now below $2.30 a gallon in most states" in his State of the Union address on 24 February.
• The current Republican majority in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber, is as thin as it gets – they have 218 representatives.
• Members of the House serve a two-year term so all 435 seats are up for election in November.
• Of those 21 toss-ups, 15 are at present held by Republicans and six by Democrats.

Americans head to the polls on 3 November to decide how the rest of Donald Trump's presidency will play out.

Thousands of races are taking place throughout the US, at different levels of administration. But the main event for voters will be electing members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two chambers that create up Congress.

Both of them are at present controlled by the Republicans, the president's party. The success or failure of Trump's final two years in office could rest on the outcome.

Here's our visual guide to where the battle for power will be won and lost – from approval ratings, to key races and problems and the enormous amount of funds being spent. Midterms come at bad time for Trump.

One of the reasons the opposition Democrats have a chance to take back Congress is the president's low approval rating. It is a good indicator for how well his party could perform.

He began his second term as president with an approval rating of just over 50%, according to polling resource website Silver Bulletin, but it rapidly fell into the 40s.

It was hovering around 42% when Trump decided to launch air strikes with Israel against Iran at the end of February this year but it fell below 40% shortly afterwards. It is at present sitting at concerning 37%.

Eight years ago, Trump's approval rating was significantly higher at this point in his first term, at 43%. Joe Biden's at the same point in his term was at 40%. In both cases, the sitting president lost control of the House in the midterms but kept hold of the Senate.

But Trump's poor ratings support explain why Democrats are hopeful of winning both chambers of Congress and why they are setting their sights on states that Republicans have won consistently over recent years. The battle for the House.

Meanwhile, the current Republican majority in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber, is as thin as it gets – they have 218 representatives. It is the exact number needed to have control, plus one independent who votes with them.

But most districts are not considered competitive since the party that holds them has such solid backing that there is only one probable winner.

In practice, the Cook Political Report. It analyses campaigns and elections, suggests that just 21 districts are "toss-ups" that could be won by either party.

Of those 21 toss-ups, 15 are at present held by Republicans and six by Democrats. If the Democrats win five of those on top of 28 districts classed as probable or leaning Democratic, they will win the House.

Historically, the midterms see a high number of seats changing hands in the House, usually in a protest against the White House. The average number lost by the president's party is 27, according to data, external going back to 1934. Of those 23 elections, the president's party has only created gains in three. The battle for the Senate.

Notably, the Republicans have a slightly stronger hold on the Senate. They hold 53 of the 100 seats while the Democrats have 45 and two independents who additionally vote with them.

Members of the Senate serve six-year terms so roughly a third are up for election every two years.

Thirty-five seats are up for grabs in November but analysis by the Cook Political Report suggests that only seven of them are toss-ups that could go either way.

Of those toss-ups, six are at present held by Republicans and one by Democrats. The Democrats would need to win four of those seats, plus the four classed as probable or leaning Democratic, to hit 51 and take control of the Senate. But winning a majority is no straightforward task for the Democrats.

They need to keep hold of their seat in Michigan, where polls suggest the race is tighter than Democrats would like between Abdul El-Sayed, a left-wing political outsider, and his Republican rival Mike Rogers, a Trump ally and former FBI agent.

But polls suggest they have a chance, even in Texas where former teacher James Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1988 if he defeats Ken Paxton, the current state attorney general and close Trump ally. What would Democratic control of Congress mean for Trump? Anthony Zurcher: The Republican candidates walking a Trump tightrope. What are the key problems for voters?

Trump pledged to "end inflation and make America affordable again" in his 2024 election campaign but the cost of living crisis is proving to be the key matter for voters.

Notably, the president proudly declared that gas was "now below $2.30 a gallon in most states" in his State of the Union address on 24 February. But the war with Iran began four days afterwards, disrupting Middle Eastern energy supplies and causing gas to hit $4 (£3.03) in the US.

In practice, the war became increasingly unpopular as its consequences reverberated worldwide and ultimately hit American consumers in the pocket. One poll carried out in August discovered 63% of respondents disapproved of Trump's handling of the situation.

Other problems that voters say are notable to them include healthcare and immigration.

Trump has lately touted his policies around immigration as a sizeable success, citing significantly lower border-crossing figures than over recent years.

Plenty of Democratic candidates are focusing on the high costs of US health insurance and the impact of Trump's legislation on access to the healthcare system.

Trump wants to reduce the cost of fuel as the midterms loom – will it work? Can Trump defy political gravity?

Most signs point towards a successful midterms for the Democrats, but it wouldn't be the first time that Trump and his party have outperformed polls if they do win more seats than projected.

One of the few things in their favour is their massive financial advantage.

While the Democrats had just under $400m (£303m), at the end of August, the Republican National Committee and its allied groups had more than $600m (£455m) cash on hand.

On top of that, the Republicans additionally had more than $400m held by Trump's MAGA Inc group, the main fundraising and spending arm of the "Make America Great Again" political movement. The Republicans are using that financial advantage to purchase advertising.

More than $1bn worth of political ads were broadcast to US voters in September, according to research firm AdImpact, external. Republicans spent $200m more than the Democrats and outspent them in almost all of the Senate races classed as toss-ups.

Trump will be hoping this late messaging blitz can support convince Republicans to secure out and vote in November, boosting turnout and limiting the damage done to him and his party.

Whatever the result, attention will rapidly turn to the next presidential election in 2028. Trump's unpopularity has dominated the midterms, but with him constitutionally unable to run for a third term the focus will shift to what the Democrats stand for, not just what they stand against.

For now, where the US midterm elections will be won and lost remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.