Who should win the men's Ballon d'Or? BBC Sport pundits have their say

For context, the Ballon d'Or winner will be confirmed in London on 26 October – but who is going to win it?

Key points

• While Kane scored 73 goals for German champions Bayern Munich and England, lamine Yamal won La Liga with Barcelona and the World Cup with Spain.
• Eight-time winner Lionel Messi, of Argentina and Inter Miami, and Real Madrid's France forward Kylian Mbappe are the other probable candidates.
• Ex-Liverpool and Blackburn full-back Stephen Warnock: I think it will be Lamine Yamal for helping Spain to win the World Cup.
• Former Tottenham and Crystal Palace forward Andros Townsend: Harry Kane should win the Ballon d'Or.
• Norwegian football journalist Lars Sivertsen on Champions League Match of the Day: I would like to see Harry Kane win it, he deserves it.

Bookmakers have Spain winger Lamine Yamal and England captain Harry Kane particularly close together as clear favourites.

Eight-time winner Lionel Messi, of Argentina and Inter Miami, and Real Madrid's France forward Kylian Mbappe are the other probable candidates. Or how regarding one of Paris St-Germain's back-to-back European champions?

BBC Sport asked a number of of its football experts who they think should take home the award. Goal, assist. Goal-kick – Kane underlines Ballon d'Or credentials. Lamine Yamal 'completes football' at 19 as Argentina betray Messi. How PSG's Ballon d'Or duo are pushing each other on.

European football expert Guillem Balague: Can you imagine this Ballon d'Or not won by a PSG player or a Spanish player? Impossible. So gone is Kylian Mbappe.

Meanwhile, the PSG players, there are so plenty of of them that deserve it – Fabian Ruiz, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele, Vitinha. So the vote is going to be split.

There is only one Spaniard who deserves it, and that's Lamine Yamal. This person has given us individual performances, collective trophies, and has that aura. He's going to win it.

European football expert Julien Laurens: I think he was the best player in Europe last season, especially in the Champions League where he was outstanding. He supported lead the team to another title, a back-to-back one.

He obtained the penalty in the final, scored in both semi-finals, in the quarter-final, and in the last 16. He was amazing in those massive, enormous games where you want your best players to step up. He deserves to win the Ballon d'Or for being the best player in the world all the way up to the World Cup.

Since Lamine Yamal, for the player he is and how entertaining and spectacular he is, didn't really shine at the World Cup, even if Spain won it, he won't win it, unfortunately. He didn't really do that well in the Champions League for Barcelona, getting knocked out early. Nevertheless, his style of football means he'll probably win it – but it should be Kvaratskhelia.

Ex-Liverpool and Blackburn full-back Stephen Warnock: I think it will be Lamine Yamal for helping Spain to win the World Cup. If you were asking who else is in the hunt, I would say Michael Olise, but my pick personally would be Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, he is unbelievable. I love watching him play. He had such an impact for Paris St-Germain and last season he was incredible. I just don't think he will obtain the votes with Georgia not being in the World Cup.

BBC Radio 5 Live Euro Leagues guest and Athletic reporter Rory Smith: It will probably go to Lamine Yamal since it generally goes to someone who has won the biggest trophy, and this is the World Cup. It shouldn't be him since he wasn't necessarily Spain's most notable player but his fame and talent means it will be him.

Personally I would offer it to Kvaratskhelia. He has been the most exciting player in European club football for a while now, a valuable part of the PSG team who retained the Champions League, and crucially I think you shouldn't suffer since you come from a country who isn't in the running to win the World Cup.

Former England striker Alan Shearer: The winner of the Ballon d'Or should be Harry Kane. His numbers for the last 12 to 18 months have been absolutely sensational for Bayern and for England. For that reason, he should obtain it.

Ex-England midfielder Danny Murphy: My choice for the Ballon d'Or is Harry Kane. I think his goalscoring has been relentless, brilliant. He's had one of the best seasons of his career and it'll be a great reward for him if he gets the trophy. He's been brilliant at Bayern Munich since he's been there, adapted really well and he's been the best centre-forward in the world for the last 12 months.

Former Tottenham and Crystal Palace forward Andros Townsend: Harry Kane should win the Ballon d'Or. He scored 73 goals in 65 games, 36 of those in the Bundesliga. He led Bayern Munich to the league and cup double. He scored 14 goals in the Champions League, helping Bayern Munich to the semi-finals and scored six goals in the World Cup, leading England to the semi-finals. He has had an outstanding year.

Former England striker Ellen White: It's a tough one but I'll go with my heart – I'd love to see Harry Kane win it. I know he didn't win the World Cup but his numbers are absolutely extraordinary, with what he has achieved with Bayern Munich and England. Lamine Yamal had a few injuries but I know he won the World Cup and I'm sure he will win the Ballon d'Or one day. Michael Olise has additionally been phenomenal.

Norwegian football journalist Lars Sivertsen on Champions League Match of the Day: I would like to see Harry Kane win it, he deserves it. He is a real leader at Bayern Munich. He never makes trouble and is a role model. But I do wonder if him being a low-key character hurts him. Notably, the Ballon d'Or is a popularity contest. I love that he doesn't do all that but maybe he should. What information do we collect from this quiz?

Taken together, the developments around who should win the men' s Ballon d' Or? BBC Sport pundits have their point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.