Why Iran is threatening Europe’s ‘strategically important’ southeast

As well as their lack of enthusiasm for a potential conflict, london, United Kingdom – The United States and Israel's war on Iran was largely unexpected, given the repeated warnings from most US allies.

Key points

• According to a recent report in the Financial Times, citing unnamed Iranian sources, Tehran will consider attacking Europe if Washington escalates the conflict.
• According to Armida van Rij, a senior fellow at the Centre for European Reform, southeastern Europe could be seen as an attractive target.
• According to Petrov, Sofia lacks the institutional capacity to defy a brash administration in Washington while managing the war in Ukraine and an increasingly active Russia.
• By firing missiles at Bezmer Air Base, Iran might hope to raise the costs of that cooperation and possibly drive a wedge between Bulgaria and the US.
• For now, a reasonable conclusion is that Iran has held back by calculating that an Iranian missile attack on Europe could hand Washington a strategic victory.

Iran's retaliation, too, has been unexpected, particularly Iranian missile strikes on a number of countries not party to the conflict, in the Gulf, and more lately, Jordan.

Beyond the immediate regional sphere, the Iranian military has reportedly attempted to hit targets as far as the joint US-UK military base on the island of Diego Garcia, 2, 350 miles (3, 780 kilometres) away from Iran. And Tehran has lately threatened southeastern Europe – in particular, Bulgaria.

In July, Bulgaria's parliament approved the employ of its Bezmer Air Base for refuelling US military aircraft, an agreement that functions as a backing mechanism for the US military operations in the Middle East and against Iran.

Speaking to his Bulgarian counterpart, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cautioned that any country aiding US "aggression" against Iran would be considered a legitimate target of retaliatory attack by Tehran.

" is the soft underbelly of Europe as it is strategically important, hosting a number of NATO bases and key supplies to Ukraine and being on the Black Sea".

In Bulgaria, the Iran war is perceived as something "remote", Angel Petrov, a Sofia-based journalist who covers southeast Europe and the Middle East for the news website, Dnevnik.bg, informed Al Jazeera.

Bulgarians do not view the Iran war "as important as Ukraine, and whose implications in terms of oil prices seem bearable, given general inflation".

According to Petrov, Sofia lacks the institutional capacity to defy a brash administration in Washington while managing the war in Ukraine and an increasingly active Russia. So it was not surprising when Bulgarian leaders obliged the Trump administration's request for the employ of the Bezmer Air Base.

By firing missiles at Bezmer Air Base, Iran might hope to raise the costs of that cooperation and possibly drive a wedge between Bulgaria and the US. Bulgarians would find themselves under threat from the Iran war, to which they are indifferent, at the behest of a US ally that has shown increasing reluctance to backing them in the war in Ukraine that they consider more notable.

While Iranian missiles could indisputably reach parts of Europe, whether those attacks would further Iranian goals is less clear.

Ali Bakir, a senior non-resident fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, remarked an Iranian attack on Europe would play into Trump's hands and intensify Iran's isolation.

In the event of an attack on countries such as Bulgaria, Iran would effectively force an extra front on Europe to a conflict that numerous European leaders have resisted joining, much to the irritation of the US leader.

According to Bakir, engaging Europe in the Iran conflict would probable benefit Russia's war in Ukraine, aided by further straining Europe militarily, "potentially triggering a much wider and more dangerous war with serious international economic and security consequences".

It may be that, for Tehran, the threat of an attack on a less powerful European country is worth more than missiles actually fired towards Europe.

For context, the threat could shape domestic politics in Europe, keeping focus alive on a conflict that is farther than the immediate war in Ukraine and making European leaders and populations more hesitant to offer passive backing to the US military effort against Iran.

Iran's declared aim is to prise Europe away from the US campaign.

Nevertheless, an actual strike on a member of both the European Union and NATO would turn Europe from a hedging bystander into a belligerent party, trigger Article 4 – which quite possibly results in military retaliation, and hand Washington the European coalition it has so far failed to assemble.

Nevertheless, a number of factors keep the risk of an attack on Europe above zero.

For context, the first is the credibility trap. Having declared that any base applied to attack Iranian territory is a legitimate target, Tehran has threatened to extend its retaliation beyond the Middle East if pressed further by the US, but that threat will only remain effective as long as US allies believe Iran is actually willing to do so.

Another factor is that Iran would not consider itself to be attacking Europe at all, but US assets that happen to stand on European soil. Tehran has applied a similar distinction in missile attacks against other countries in the region, such as GCC countries. Gulf nations have rejected that notion, saying their countries, populations and infrastructure should not be assaulted against the backdrop of a war they did not launch, but have not thus far retaliated against Iran directly.

Lastly, and perhaps more importantly, the cohesion of the command and control mechanisms in Iran matters deeply. If the decision to attack is not created by those who devise political strategy, retaliation could be unpredictable. The desire to respond to renewed US attacks by attacking a perceived subdued point could result in disastrous overreach.

In practice, the longevity of the conflict is arguably a greater threat to Europe than Iranian missile capabilities that NATO defences over Europe could well protect against.

As the war drags on, the real danger for Europe is a prolonged US-Iran war that Washington treats as dormant, with financial effects being felt in European streets and backing diverted away from Russia and the Ukraine war.

In short, why Iran is threatening Europe's 'strategically important' southeast is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.