Why MLB’s 2026 qualifying offers could be the last ones ever

Why MLB's 2026 qualifying offers could be the last ones ever.

Key points

• The Rangers offered Corey Seager 10 years and $325 million and Marcus Semien seven years and $175 million.
• Since the system began after the 2012 season, only 18 of 157 players accepted before this year.
• Bauers is one of eight free agents who received a qualifying offer Monday, along with Yankees closer David Bednar, Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki and Marlins outfielder Randy Arozarena.
• 2 until March 10, 2022 and the rest of the players with qualifying offers had to wait.
• When the 2021-22 lockout concluded, the owners offered to drop the qualifying offer in exchange for an international draft.

Could a lockout prevent the 2027 MLB season from starting on time? Are we heading towards a lockout in 2027? Jake Bauers created $2.7 million this season.

By 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 17, the Milwaukee Brewers' National League Championship Series MVP has to decide whether to take $23.15 million for one year or turn it down and test free agency.

He may be one of the last players ever who has to create that call.

Bauers is one of eight free agents who received a qualifying offer Monday, along with Yankees closer David Bednar, Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki and Marlins outfielder Randy Arozarena. Major League Baseball and the players union have both proposed scrapping the system in the next collective bargaining agreement. The current accord expires Dec. 1 and a lockout is projected.

This is not new territory. When the last CBA expired in 2021, 14 players received qualifying offers. Brandon Belt was the only one who remarked yes.

Eight of the others had deals in place by the time the owners locked out the players. Four more waited out the 99-day lockout. What is a qualifying offer in baseball?

Meanwhile, a qualifying offer is a one-year contract set at the average salary of baseball's 125 highest-paid players. This year it's a record $23.15 million, up from $22.025 million last year.

Notably, a team can only create the offer to a player who spent the whole season with the club and has never received one before. The player has two choices.

Accept, and he's back with his team for one more season. He can't be traded without his consent until June 15.

Reject, and he becomes a free agent with a draft pick penalty attached. If he signs somewhere else, his old team gets a compensation pick, and his new team gives up at least one of its own.

How much that pick is worth depends on the old team's finances. A revenue-sharing club like the Brewers can obtain a pick right after the first round if the player signs for $50 million or more. Luxury-tax payers like the Yankees and Cubs only obtain one after the fourth round.

Most players say no. Since the system began after the 2012 season, only 18 of 157 players accepted before this year. A record four did it last winter. Who obtained qualifying offer in 2026?

Eight offers is the fewest since 2023. Teams handed out 14 before the last lockout.

Cubs outfielder Ian Happ and Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm did not obtain qualifying offers. It was a little surprising. The Yankees decided not to offer one to Jazz Chisholm a year after Trent Grisham accepted their offer and posted just 0.7 WAR in 2026. Why the 2026 qualifying offer could be the last.

Draft-pick compensation was at the center of the 1981 players strike, and the union has pushed to end or limit it in every negotiation since, according to MLB. Since teams think twice concerning signing someone who costs them a draft pick, players see it as a drag on free agency.

On May 27, the union proposed eliminating it. On June 25, the league agreed.

MLB repeated that offer Tuesday in a proposal that additionally pushed its salary cap plan back to 2028. The union rapidly rejected the package. The biggest fight between the two sides is over the cap.

According to the league, ending the system would remove draft-pick compensation from free agency for the first time since 1976.

Still, nothing is done until there's a accord. Baseball learned that last time.

When the 2021-22 lockout concluded, the owners offered to drop the qualifying offer in exchange for an international draft. The two sides offered themselves until July 25, 2022 to agree. The union rejected the draft, and the qualifying offer survived for the rest of the CBA.

None of this changes the rules for this winter. Teams had to create their offers, and players have to answer, before the current CBA expires.

What's less clear is what happens to a player who rejects his offer and is still unsigned when a new accord arrives. If the system is gone by then, it's unclear whether his old team would still obtain a pick. How the qualifying offer worked before the 2021 lockout.

Meanwhile, the 2021 offer was worth $18.4 million. Thirteen players turned it down, and they split into three groups.

Some didn't wait at all. Eduardo Rodriguez signed a five-year, $77 million accord with the Tigers and Noah Syndergaard took one year and $21 million from the Angels before the decision deadline even arrived. Justin Verlander rejected the Astros' offer and agreed to return to Houston the same day on a one-year, $35 million accord with a player option. That contract was finalized during the lockout.

Others beat the clock. The Rangers offered Corey Seager 10 years and $325 million and Marcus Semien seven years and $175 million. The Mariners offered Robbie Ray five years and $115 million. Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels on Dec. 1. Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers.

Teams committed a single-day record $1.4 billion in contracts on Dec. 1, according to an Associated Press tally. Hours afterwards the owners locked out the players.

Transactions froze from Dec. 2 until March 10, 2022 and the rest of the players with qualifying offers had to wait.

When the market reopened, Freddie Freeman signed with the Dodgers for six years and $162 million. Nick Castellanos obtained five years and $100 million from the Phillies. Carlos Correa took three years and $105.3 million from the Twins, with opt-outs after each of the first two seasons. Trevor Story signed with the Red Sox for six years and $140 million.

Michael Conforto never signed in 2022. He underwent shoulder surgery and sat out the season.

Since the new CBA kept the qualifying offer, the draft picks still changed hands. The Red Sox applied the 79th pick as their compensation for losing Rodriguez, on outfielder Roman Anthony. The Dodgers never obtained to apply theirs for Seager, they lost it when they signed Freeman. Will free agents sign before the Dec. 1 lockout?

If 2021 is any guide, expect a late rush. Players want contracts and security before the shutdown, and teams want to fill roster holes.

Meanwhile, the qualifying offer adds pressure. A player who rejects his offer stays tied to draft compensation until the next amateur draft begins. In 2019, Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel waited so long that they signed after the draft, and their old teams obtained nothing.

This time, no one knows what rules will be in place in 2027.

In practice, the last time a lockout loomed, only one player remarked yes. Brandon Belt took his $18.4 million and stayed in San Francisco. Share your feedback to support improve our site!

In short, why MLBs 2026 qualifying offers could be the last ones ever is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.