Why northern Mozambique’s surging violence is worsening displacement crisis

Published On 26 Aug 202626 Aug 2026.

Key points

• When the group was formally acknowledged by ISIL, sporadic attacks continued through 2019, with 464 civilians killed between 2017 and 2019.
• Between January and July, at least 28, 163 individuals were displaced; 65 percent of them were women and children.
• SADC's 2, 200 troops exited Mozambique in 2024.
• Some 6, 000 individuals are believed to have been killed since 2017.
• ISMP, with an estimated 300 to 500 members, is a relatively small group, compared with other ISIL (additionally known as ISIS) affiliates in Africa.

Mozambique administration has begun a two-day forum to discuss the future of displaced residents in the country as a devastating armed conflict in the northern Cabo Delgado region enters its ninth year.

Since 2017, resource-rich northern Mozambique has battled an ISIL-affiliated armed group, known locally as al-Shabab, but which has no affiliation with the Somali armed group of the same name. Heavy troop deployments to the affected areas have so far failed to dislodge the group.

Renewed attacks since last August have caused a surge in displacement and humanitarian needs.

Notably, the latest wave of violence affected all 17 districts of the Cabo Delgado region for the first time. While plenty of others are being displaced multiple times, some former host communities are now fleeing for safety as well.

More than 1.3 million have fled their homes in the course of the conflict, with 100, 000 individuals lately displaced in late 2025 alone, according to the United Nations. With no military solution in sight, some are calling for negotiations.

Here's what we know regarding the conflict's history and why a new wave of violence is happening. What has happened in Cabo Delgado this year?

Since late 2025 have worsened an ongoing humanitarian disaster, renewed clashes between the Mozambican army and allied forces on the one hand, and al-Shabab or Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISMP) on the other.

Clashes have been recorded around the strategic town of Mocimboa de Praia and surrounding areas. Armed activity has additionally been noted in formerly safe towns like Mueda, once a hub of displaced individuals and humanitarian organisations.

Against the backdrop of US-led global aid cuts, a number of aid organisations have exited the north or limited their operations. The UN remarked the humanitarian response is reaching 619, 000 of the 1.1 million residents lately targeted due to funding gaps.

Regarding 1.8 million residents need assistance, including a million children, according to UNICEF.

In recent months, though, fewer individuals have moved, despite the violence, Hannah Danziger da Silva, country representative for aid organisation We World, informed Al Jazeera.

"People are just tired, I guess, " she remarked. "They're just running into the bushes when attacks happen and then returning. Individuals don't want to have to leave their crops and homes behind again."

Northern Mozambique is additionally facing more intense floods and cyclones, making the crisis multilayered. Cyclone Chido, in late 2024, displaced almost 100, 000 residents. What is ISMP and what does it want?

ISMP, with an estimated 300 to 500 members, is a relatively small group, compared with other ISIL (additionally known as ISIS) affiliates in Africa. But it is one of the most lethal.

Peter Bofin of ACLED, a conflict monitor, informed Al Jazeera the group has managed to survive by protecting illicit finance networks and maintaining robust local backing networks.

ISMP was initially led by Abu Yasir Hassan "Abu Qasim", a Tanzanian, but he is believed to be dead. The new de facto leader, researcher sources say, is another Tanzanian called "Farido."

Notably, the group emerged in northern Mozambique in the early 2010s. At the time, a number of groups were forming in the mostly Muslim north, where numerous have historically felt neglected by the administration in Maputo. The area, despite riches in ruby, gold, marine wildlife and gas, is Mozambique's poorest. Droughts and cyclones are additionally reducing agricultural proceeds and deepening poverty.

Agitation for fairer distribution of wealth intensified when gas was discovered in the region in 2010, and as international firms like Anadarko (afterwards acquired by Total) moved in.

In 2017, regarding 30 al-Shabab fighters rolled out a series of bloody attacks on police stations and civilians in the port town of Mocimboa de Praia, setting off the armed rebellion. Around the same time, Tanzania had clamped down on separatist figures, forcing them to flee throughout the border.

Meanwhile, the fighters informed villagers that they carried out the attacks as they rejected state institutions and Western education, and sought to establish a religious state.

When the group was formally acknowledged by ISIL, sporadic attacks continued through 2019, with 464 civilians killed between 2017 and 2019. Its signature style was particularly gruesome: Fighters beheaded and chopped civilians on football pitches, or shot them at close range and burned their homes.

Attacks peaked in 2020 when ISMP seized the town of Mocimboa de Praia, expelling administration forces. It additionally inched closer to the multibillion-dollar Total LNG project site. Between 2017 and 2020, at least 2, 000 civilians were killed. How has the administration responded?

Mozambican forces attempted to quell the armed rebellion alone but without results in the early days.

"The Mozambican army is quite small, " Bofin observed. "They're not especially well trained nor well equipped."

Notably, the security forces have additionally been accused of being corrupt. President Daniel Chapo remarked last year that some members "sell out their homeland" by leaking details of security operations.

In January 2021, Total evacuated its staff after attacks on villages close to the project site. Then, in March, it suspended the gas project after fighters targeted and destroyed Palma town, just 10km (6.2 miles) away.

Maputo then stepped up its efforts to halt the rebellion. By July, Mozambique had signed a accord with Rwanda to deploy an initial 1, 000 battle-trained Rwandan Defence Forces to the region to defend the gas project. A 2, 200-strong contingent from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) additionally deployed.

Mozambican and allied forces introduced major offensives on ISMP, regained territory, and pushed the fighters back into their forested base. By late 2021, some ISMP fighters deserted the group against the backdrop of reports of a significant lack of supplies. Why is there a resurgence in fighting now?

Although ISMP never completely halted attacks, it appears to have recovered and retooled since late 2021.

"They're quite adaptable, " Bofin remarked. "They're able to change circumstances quickly while maintaining coherence in leadership structures."

For context, the group has since resorted to strengthening its revenue sources. It began kidnapping residents, forcing families to send funds through mobile capital networks. It has additionally taxed gold mined illegally in the region, and engaged in its own mining activities. Bofin remarked this push for domestic financing comes as Somalia, backed by the US, has intensified attacks on IS-Somalia, where ISMP's funding employed to flow from. ISMP has additionally forcefully recruited fighters.

Some 5, 000 RDF soldiers are still stationed in the north, but mostly around the LNG project area. They have not been as aggressive in other areas as they were in the early days, Bofin pointed out.

Meanwhile, SADC's 2, 200 troops exited Mozambique in 2024. There are speculations of subdued intelligence sharing and other frictions with the Mozambican army. Analysts point out that the SADC exit allowed ISMP to regain influence in some towns like Macomia and Quissanga.

As the conflict nears a decade, President Chapo appears eager to test a pathway his predecessors shunned: negotiations.

For context, the move is in line with a combination military-and-diplomatic tactic that Mozambican intellectuals have been calling for. Nevertheless, the president, in an interview with Al Jazeera, alluded to the challenges of identifying exactly whom to dialogue with.

"We will continue working, while we also try to identify the leaders and their motivations, to see if, through this path, we can also continue working, " he remarked.

As seen in conflict-affected countries like Burkina Faso, it's not unusual for local authorities to have agreements with ideological armed groups.

For now, why northern Mozambique's surging violence is worsening displacement crisis remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.