Action on climate change is vital but must not fall hardest on poorest – Satwat Rehman and Dave Reay

Action on climate change is vital but must not fall hardest on poorest – Satwat Rehman and Dave Reay The transition to a low-carbon Scotland must improve people's lives, create good jobs and cut bills.

Key points

• Satwat Rehman, chief executive of One Parent Families Scotland, and Professor Dave Reay are returning as co-chairs of the Just Transition Commission.
• The final report of the previous Just Transition Commission began with an explicit warning: the social licence for climate action is under threat.
• Put simply, "wildfires rank among the most economically destructive hazards globally, and the costs are rising".
• Mainly this has been regarding economic change as fossil fuel technologies are replaced by low-emission alternatives throughout energy, transport, land employ, agriculture and our built environment.
• Climate risks like extreme heat are greater for some than others, for example if you're particularly young, elderly or disabled.

Our climate is changing and Scotland needs to adapt. Heatwaves and low rainfall have created this a blazing summer, from Arthur's Seat to the Cairngorms, where ten square miles of our most cherished landscape went up in smoke. We needed 500 firefighters to quell the flames, at a time when our fire service is already under immense resource pressure. We additionally know this summer's infernos were not a one-off.

Global heating looks all but certain to go well beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius, and our collective response to the climate crisis so far has been inadequate to say the least. Governments have set plenty of targets for cutting emissions, but continually failed to meet them and that now means Scotland, like the rest of the world, must urgently plan for a future of ever-greater disruption as our climate becomes more extreme.

We need action that limits how much more warming we cause and protects us from the impacts of climate change that are already baked in. It's regarding actions like insulating our homes, changing how we produce our food, restoring forests and peatlands, and insisting that the inevitable move away from oil and gas towards renewables delivers good jobs and income for supply-chain businesses in Scotland.

It's additionally concerning ensuring a future where road and rail systems can better cope with floods and landslides, where the livelihoods of farmers, fishers and foresters are safeguarded from changing drought, wildfire and disease risks, and where schools can keep pupils and staff safe in the face of intense heatwaves. 'The costs are rising'.

As the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction notes, the global cost of damage from natural hazards last year was calculated at $224 billion, with the costliest single event the Los Angeles wildfire disaster which asserted 30 lives and cost $53bn. Put simply, "wildfires rank among the most economically destructive hazards globally, and the costs are rising".

Scotland is not insulated from this threat. The evidence notes this isn't just our new normal. We should expect things to obtain worse, and must plan accordingly.

In practice, the Scottish Administration has today renewed the remit of the Just Transition Commission to advise on these critical matters for a third time, and deserves credit for that. Since 2019, the commission has travelled throughout Scotland and heard how residents and places are experiencing the climate transition, from Grangemouth to the Isle of Yell, Aberdeen to the forests of Galloway.

Mainly this has been regarding economic change as fossil fuel technologies are replaced by low-emission alternatives throughout energy, transport, land employ, agriculture and our built environment. Risk of new forms of injustice.

Climate change is the biggest risk multiplier for inequality this century. Our role as a commission is to show how, with a bold and innovative approach, we can still succeed in reducing our emissions and adapting to climate impacts in a way that builds a Scotland that is truly resilient in terms of our society, economy, and the infrastructure we rely on. Our job is to support ensure Scotland responds to these threats in a way that protects vulnerable communities and doesn't create new forms of injustice.

At its core, this is regarding how we allocate resources. A 2022 study by Climate Exchange was unequivocal: if we are to deliver a fair way of managing climate-related risks, "the outcomes for the most vulnerable need to be understood and well managed". We will be doing everything we can over the next five years as Scotland's Just Transition Commission to deepen our understanding of how individuals are facing up to these risks.

Climate risks like extreme heat are greater for some than others, for example if you're particularly young, elderly or disabled. But poverty can send those risks soaring higher. A recent study in the US discovered "socioeconomic and demographic vulnerabilities, rather than meteorological extremes alone, may be more consistent drivers of heat-related mortality variation". In other words: if you're poorer, suffer from health problems, have reduced mobility, or are part of a marginalised group, you're more probable to suffer since of climate change, or even be killed by it.

Unable to afford house insurance.

In California, wildfires are now a prime driver of housing inequality and rose risk for those who can't afford safer areas or to insure their homes. After the most recent Cairngorms fire, Scotland's Chief Fire Officer, Stuart Stevens, rightly pressed wildfires to be viewed as a national resilience problem. Our response must be informed by what's been learned in places that have already experienced more extreme climate impacts than we have.

As children in Ardfern identified out in 2023 when their school on Argyll's Craignish peninsula was cut off by a landslide caused by heavy rain, the risk multiplier for inequality is additionally stark in terms of extreme events potentially cutting off access to transport and services. Supporting rural and remote communities is a critical test for any administration, and changing climate hazards mean they will need greater resources, knowledge and autonomy if they're to be resilient.

For context, the final report of the previous Just Transition Commission began with an explicit warning: the social licence for climate action is under threat. Throughout Europe and the US, we're seeing climate policy presented as something that makes ordinary residents poorer, that is imposed on communities by elites. That narrative is wrong, but effective precisely since climate action has sometimes been designed in ways that fall hardest on those with the lowest incomes.

This new commission will keep pushing, hard, for a tangible just transition towards a low-carbon, more resilient Scotland that measurably improves people's lives, cuts bills, gives children cleaner air, creates good jobs, and gives communities genuine power over their future.

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In short, action on climate change is vital but must not fall hardest on is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.