Jon Ossoff's Chances of Losing to Republican Mike Collins in Georgia—Poll

Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff holds a 7-point lead over Republican Representative Mike Collins in the latest poll of the Georgia Senate race, a key race in a state that President Donald Trump won in 2024.

Key points

• The Peach State has become firmly purple over recent years, backing Trump in 2016 and 2024 while backing President Joe Biden in 2020.
• The poll surveyed 800 probable voters from August 16 to August 17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
• A poll for Fox News put Ossoff's backing at 56 percent compared to Collins' 43 percent-a whopping 13-point margin.
• Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro followed at 6 percent, while Ossoff and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly each received 5 percent in the poll.
• A recent Wick survey indicated Ossoff up 4 points with 46.7 percent to Collins' 42.9 percent.

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In practice, the Peach State has become firmly purple over recent years, backing Trump in 2016 and 2024 while backing President Joe Biden in 2020. Ossoff has proven to be a solid Democrat in the state and has been floated as a potential presidential contender as shortly as 2028.

While 43 percent remarked they plan to vote for Collins, a sitting representative from Georgia's 10th District, the new InsiderAdvantage poll published on Tuesday identified 50 percent of Georgia voters surveyed noted they would back Ossoff in November. Seven percent of respondents remarked they were undecided concerning how they would vote in the general election.

Notably, the poll surveyed 800 probable voters from August 16 to August 17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points. It was first documented by James Magazine, a statewide political publication in Georgia.

For context, the Sabato Crystal Ball rates the race as "Likely Democrat" while both the Cook Political Report and the Fox News Senate Forecast rate the race as "Lean Democrat."

Newsweek reached out to the Ossoff and Collins campaigns for comment via email.

Ossoff, who first entered office in 2021, has built up a lead over Collins in the battleground state, but Republicans still view the race as one of their top flip opportunities in the midterms, along with Michigan, another state that was won by Trump in 2016 and 2024.

Meanwhile, the latest poll from AARP discovered Ossoff up 9 points over Collins, 52 percent to 43 percent. It was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research among 1, 060 probable voters from July 13 to July 16, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

In practice, a recent Wick survey indicated Ossoff up 4 points with 46.7 percent to Collins' 42.9 percent. It surveyed 1, 175 probable voters from June 27 to June 30, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

For context, a poll for Fox News put Ossoff's backing at 56 percent compared to Collins' 43 percent-a whopping 13-point margin. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Firm Research among 1, 002 registered voters from June 23 to June 27.

Ossoff's chances of winning have expanded over the past month in prediction markets. On Wednesday, he had a 91.3 percent chance of winning, up from 87 percent chance one month earlier, on Kalshi. On Polymarket, his chances of beating Collins stood at 94 percent, up from 86 percent one month earlier.

Prediction markets allow traders to purchase and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑capital wagers into probability estimates.

Rates fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future. Governor Race Is Competitive, New Poll Finds.

In practice, the new poll from InsiderAdvantage additionally identified that the Georgia governor race between former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, and businessman Rick Jackson, a Republican, remains competitive. Each candidate received 46 percent backing in that poll, with 8 percent remaining undecided, according to the poll.

Polls have generally shown that the governor race is much tighter than the Senate race.

Outgoing Republican Governor Brian Kemp won two terms and a Democrat has not taken the governor's mansion since 1998. Kemp opted to stay out of the Senate race.

While the Wick poll demonstrated the race almost tied, with Republican leading by a half point, 43.2 percent to 42.7 percent, the AARP poll discovered Bottoms with a 2-point lead over Jackson, 48 percent to 46 percent. The Fox News poll indicated Bottoms leading by 5 points, 52 percent to 47 percent. Jon Ossoff, Donald Trump Dispute Explained.

Notably, the polling comes as Ossoff created headlines this week after taking aim at Trump's relationship with his aide Natalie Harp. The Senator remarked the president preferred to "travel with Natalie" rather than do his job as he produced remarks regarding the war in Iran and the record-setting deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier.

"While the sailors on the Lincoln fight his war, while he fruitlessly drains our munitions and oil reserves, the president sleeps through his meetings, " Ossoff remarked. "He golfs and trades stocks. See, he doesn't want to do the job. He wants to build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace gifted by the emir of Qatar."

Ossoff remarked during an interview with MS Now's Jen Psaki on Monday that he has "heard this particular aide referred to as security blanket."

Harp is the president's executive assistant and was one of three aides who joined him in his recent plane swap. It was prompted by a potential threat of an Iranian missile attack. White House deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino and Walt Nauta, the director of Oval Office operations, additionally joined the president.

On Monday, Steven Cheung, the White House director of communications, reposted a clip of Ossoff's remarks on X, and wrote, "Jon Jackoff has to be the biggest cuck loser in politics. Instead of denigrating hard working individuals serving their country, Jon should look deep into his soul and ask himself why he's a miserable person who hates this country. It's since he's a radical, extremist Dumocrat."

Ossoff is frequently named as a potential candidate in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, with some in the party believing his popularity in a swing state like Georgia could create him a robust candidate against a Republican candidate nationwide. But the senator has repeatedly dismissed speculation regarding a potential presidential run.

"I have zero interest in running for president in 2028, and frankly zero interest in the 2028 fantasy football right now, " he informed Psaki on Monday.

But some Democratic voters are still saying they would vote for him in a primary if he changes his mind.

Early polls can test name recognition and be an significant signal for voters and donors alike concerning a candidate's viability. Typically, most candidates wait until after the midterms to announce a White House run and primary season is projected to commence in early 2027.

Notably, the latest poll from Focaldata and the Financial Times indicated 2024 nominee and former Vice President Kamala Harris leading the 2028 Democratic field with 30 percent of the vote, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 14 percent, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 10 percent and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8 percent.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro followed at 6 percent, while Ossoff and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly each received 5 percent in the poll. It surveyed 2, 152 adults August 7 to August 11.

Ossoff is additionally a leading contender in prediction markets, having a 16 percent chance of winning the nomination on Kalshi, only behind Ocasio-Cortez. On Polymarket, he has a 14 percent chance behind Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez.

Democrats probable have to retain their seat in Georgia if they want to flip the Senate.

Republicans at present hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must defend all their seats and flip four others to take control of the upper chamber.

Democrats faced a tough map, defending seats in two states Trump won in 2024-Georgia and Michigan. Polling in Michigan has shown a tight race between progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former Representative Mike Rogers after they lately won their primaries. Maine and North Carolina might be Democrats' top flip opportunities.

In Maine, which Harris won by regarding 7 points, longtime GOP Senator Susan Collins is up for reelection. She faces Democrat Troy Jackson, the former Maine Senate president. Jackson took over the campaign after scandal-plagued Graham Platner exited the race after a primary victory. Collins has shown a remarkable ability to win elections in Maine as she seeks her sixth term.

In North Carolina, which Trump won by regarding 3 points, former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has built a polling lead against Michael Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee. Republican Senator Thom Tillis is retiring.

Notably, the challenge for Democrats is winning those two states and finding two more victories in states that Trump won in 2024.

Democrats view Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as being potentially competitive, and polls show close races in those states.

In short, jon Ossoff& #039; s Chances of Losing to Republican Mike Collins in Georgia is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.