Midterm elections in Mississippi shaping up as a familiar exercise in black-and-white

Midterm elections in Mississippi.

Key points

• 15, 2026, white voters alone nationally offered Trump a 40% approval rating and a 53% disapproval rating.
• Trump administration to remove 760, 000 Affordable Care Act enrollees over fraud claims.
• A Mississippi culinary-themed float will parade through Pasadena in the 2027 Rose Parade.
• So it should come as no surprise that, like Hyde-Smith in the Senate race, Mississippi's three white incumbent Republican congressmen – First District U.S.
• Yet for the 2026 midterm elections in Mississippi, the stars are aligning for a status-quo outcome.

Midterm elections in Mississippi shaping up as a familiar exercise in black-and-white. By: Sid Salter – September 23, 2026.

Bottom line, despite erosion in his approval ratings here and nationwide, Trump appears to still have political coattails in Mississippi.

In Washington, Republicans and Democrats share a real concern and a real anticipation: the 2026 midterm election may become a realigning election-meaning one in which significant segments of voters change their partisan loyalty, resulting in a change in control of Congress.

Those fears are stronger regarding the U.S. House than in the Senate, but some believe both could be in play.

Yet for the 2026 midterm elections in Mississippi, the stars are aligning for a status-quo outcome. Available polling and the professional political prognosticators' reading of the proverbial tea leaves indicate that our state's incumbent members of Congress appear headed for re-election and aren't facing particularly close challenges.

In other words, color the midterms in Mississippi with a flamboyant shade of black and white. What does that mean? It means what it has often meant historically in Mississippi – despite more than a half-century of demonstrable progress on the thorny matter of race in our state, the lowest common denominator in politics often remains race.

Looking at the usual suspects that handicap federal politics in Mississippi – including Real Clear Politics, the Cook Political Report, Nate Silver, Larry Sabato and others – white Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith of Brookhaven is projected to successfully defend her Senate seat. Assignment to the Senate Appropriations and Senate Agriculture committees, along with a key seat on the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, assuredly influences those predictions.

But a look at GOP President Donald Trump's approval ratings, including how demographics influence midterm election predictions, is instructive.

Against the backdrop of an expensive and unpopular military conflict with Iran and a prolonged period of inflation at the gas pumps and in the grocery aisles, Trump's approval ratings are dropping even in states like Mississippi that provided him some of his highest vote totals each time he sought the White House. While his disapproval rating was 60%, civiqs, the left-of-center online polling and data analytics firm whose numbers are nonetheless considered highly credible, listed Trump's national approval rating at 34% this month.

As of Sept. 15, 2026, white voters alone nationally offered Trump a 40% approval rating and a 53% disapproval rating. In Mississippi, white voters alone offered Trump a 63% approval rating and a 28% disapproval rating on the same date. Mississippi voters overall offered Trump 57.9% of the vote in 2016, 57.6% in 2020, and 60.9% in 2024.

So it should come as no surprise that, like Hyde-Smith in the Senate race, Mississippi's three white incumbent Republican congressmen – First District U.S. Rep. Trent Kelly of Tupelo, Third District U.S. Rep. Michael Guest of Brandon, and Fourth District U.S. Rep. Mike Ezell of Pascagoula – are all projected to win their midterm races. The same is true for black incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Bennie Thompson of Bolton.

Not even the influence of "kitchen table" problems like high gas costs, high food rates and rising interest rates that produce it more tough to borrow capital seem to have impacted the power of incumbency, party identification, and factionalism. Historically, these pocketbook problems have impacted what appear to be "safe" races in the most unpredictable ways.

When inflation, wages, health-care costs, taxes, retirement benefits, or local economic conditions become pressing, those reservations can influence voting behavior even in states with otherwise reliably robust partisan leanings such as Mississippi.

In Mississippi, Republicans have maintained a significant structural advantage statewide since 1980, but that advantage is not immune to voter frustration over household economic conditions. Incumbents who appear politically secure still must pay attention to everyday voter reservations as economic conditions have long reshaped political expectations.

Mississippi voters may care deeply regarding ideology and party affiliation, but elections are often swayed by practical worries that affect family finances, health care, education, jobs, and retirement security. When those "kitchen-table" problems become acute, they can shift electoral outcomes even in races that initially appear safe. Regarding the Author(s).

Sid Salter is a syndicated columnist. He is Vice President for Strategic Communications at Mississippi State University. Sid is a member of the Mississippi Press Association's Hall of Fame. His syndicated columns have been published in Mississippi and a number of national newspapers since 1978. Opinion Merle Flowers September 10, 2026. Mississippi does not have pharmacies to spare.

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Taken together, the developments around midterm elections in Mississippi shaping up as a familiar exercise in black-and point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.